From a resume perspective, Virginia and Colorado State are about as perfectly matched as you can get for a First Four game.
Virginia is 10-10 in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games; Colorado State is 9-9.
Colorado State’s average computer rating: 47.8.
Virginia’s: 48.2.
Virginia was 5-6 in true road games; Colorado State was 4-7.
Colorado State was 7-8 against teams that made the 2024 NCAA Tournament field; Virginia was 4-5.
The selection committee has Colorado State as the last team in the field, and Virginia was the fourth-to-last team in.
Vegas has Colorado State as a 1.5-point favorite. ESPN’s BPI makes Virginia the favorite, with a 60.2 percent win probability.
Getting to know: Colorado State
Colorado State averages 76.8 points per game, ranks 18th nationally in shooting (48.8 percent) and shoots a modest 34.1 percent from three.
The shooting percentage is a function of how the Rams are effective at the rim (66.6 percent, ranking sixth nationally), despite not being big at all.
The frontcourt is 6’7” senior center Joel Scott (12.9 ppg, 6.0 rebounds/g, 56.3% FG, 25.0% 3FG) and 6’8” senior power forward Patrick Cartier (10.5 ppg, 52.4% FG, 36.1% 3FG).
Athletic 6’6” senior Nique Clifford (12.2 ppg, 7.5 rebounds/g, 52.3% FG, 38.2% 3FG) starts at three spot, and also gets minutes as a stretch four.
Beware his ability to shoot from three, though it is important to note that he has struggled from behind the arc over the past six weeks, shooting just 9-of-43 (20.9 percent) over his last 13 games, dating back to Feb. 3.
The bench guy in the post is also undersized: 6’7” freshman Rashaan Mbemba (4.0 ppg, 11.3 minutes/g).
The team’s heart and soul is 6’0” senior point guard Isaiah Stevens (16.5 ppg, 7.0 assists/g, 48.3% FG, 44.7% 3FG).
Stevens can get into the paint to create for himself and for teammates, and he is a knockdown shooter.
The shooting guard is another senior, 6’4” Josiah Strong (6.7 ppg, 41.9% FG, 21.5% 3FG).
The other guys getting regular minutes in the backcourt are 6’4” junior guard Jalen Lake (6.2 ppg, 38.2% FG, 30.0% 3FG), 6’4” senior Joe Palmer (5.2 ppg, 16.1 minutes/g), and 6’2” sophomore Tavionte Jackson (2.2 ppg, 8.3 minutes/g).
How Virginia matches up
Scott, at 6’7”, 225, gets 75.1 percent of his shots at the rim, and is shooting 66.8 percent on those shots.
This would seem to be a job for Virginia grad senior Jordan Minor (4.2 ppg, 3.2 rebounds/g, 46.4% FG), who got beaten up by NC State big man DJ Burns on Friday in the ACC Tournament semifinals, giving up 17 points on 7-of-10 shooting against the overly physical 300-pounder.
On the season, Minor is holding opponents to 39.7 percent shooting, and over his last 10 games, including the State game, he is giving up 3.8 points per game on 47.1 percent shooting.
Take out the we’re not calling obvious offensive fouls or travels on Burns game, and the numbers are 2.3 points per game on 37.5 percent shooting.
The matchup problem for Virginia defensively is what to do about the Cartier-Clifford combo at the three and four spots.
This is where you’d love to be able to clone 6’8” sophomore Ryan Dunn (8.2 ppg, 7.0 rebounds/g, 2.3 blocks/g, 55.2% FG, 20.6% 3FG), but he can only guard one of them.
I’m guessing that Tony Bennett will have to put Dunn on Cartier, who is 6’8”, 220, and will have to coax some defensive minutes out of the combo of 6’5” junior Taine Murray (10.3 ppg, 52.0% FG, 45.5% 3FG in his last three games) and 6’6” sophomore Andrew Rohde, who might be the least productive guy in this tourney field averaging 25 minutes-plus per game this season, to try to check Clifford.
The matchup that will have the attention of the NBA scouts in attendance will be Reece Beekman (14.3 ppg, 6.3 assists/g, 2.1 steals/g, 45.1% FG, 32.0% 3FG) vs. Stevens at the point.
Both are special players who should get a chance at playing at the next level.
Virginia shooting guard Isaac McKneely (12.5 ppg, 41.9% FG, 44.9% 3FG) will get a challenge from Strong, who is holding opponents to 6.6 points per game on 36.8 percent shooting.
The wild card for Bennett is what role he can carve out for 6’9” stretch four/five Jake Groves (7.5 ppg, 46.4% FG, 46.7% 3FG).
Groves was a liability in a stretch of the first half of the loss to NC State on Friday night defending the pick-and-roll, and as a result found himself practically glued to the bench the rest of the way, getting just five minutes total in the second half and OT.
Groves can be a microwave coming off the bench, going for double figures 11 times this season, but his minutes are a function of his ability to be able to be at least replacement-level on the defensive end.
Share
Chris Graham
