July 4 gas prices expected to be lowest since 2021: But bumpy road ahead

GasBuddy is projecting the price of a gallon of gas to be at $3.49 a gallon on July 4, which would be the lowest July 4 gas price since 2021.

That projected national average price of gas on July 4 would be a penny lower than it was a year ago ($3.50) and would be over $1.30 below what motorists paid over the holiday in 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed oil to triple-digits.

While gasoline prices have bounced back slightly after falling as low as $3.39 per gallon in early June, some states are still seeing significantly cheaper July 4 gas prices than last year. The top 10 largest changes from a year ago are all declines, led by average gas prices now being 71 cents per gallon lower in Washington than a year ago.

Other states seeing gas price declines include Oregon (-60c), Utah (-44c), Colorado (-42c), Alaska (-42c), Wyoming (-41c), Idaho (-37c), Arizona (-31c), Montana (-28c) and South Dakota (-27c). Though some have seen prices jump compared to a year ago: Ohio (+23c), Indiana (+22c), Michigan (+14c), Georgia (+14c) and Delaware (+10c).

“For those hitting the road to celebrate Independence Day, gas prices have seen modest recent fluctuations, but most states are seeing prices near or even well below where they were a year ago,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “While the first half of the summer has been relatively smooth sailing, the road ahead may be bumpy. Activity in the tropics has increased, and projections remain for a very busy hurricane season. Even after the holiday fireworks are over, we’ll be watching for any potential fireworks at the pump that could be brought on by hurricanes disrupting refineries.”