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Ceiling for #4 Virginia is high: But yes, the floor

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virginia basketballIt’s not an accident that fourth-ranked Virginia swaggered onto the floor Monday night on an 11-game winning streak with Ws against the likes of Ohio State, West Virginia, Villanova and Cal.

The Cavs are that good.

Reality check came around 11 p.m.

OK, they’re good, yes, that good, but they’re not that good.

UVA escaped Cal a couple of weeks ago with shutdown defense in the final 17 minutes of regulation and OT. But as was the case in a loss two months ago at George Washington, the defense itself shut down in the 70-68 loss at Virginia Tech.

The Hokies attacked the Pack-Line with impunity in the second half, running an endless series of high pick-and-rolls that freed up dribble drives into the lane, bigs cutting to the rim and wide-open three-point shooters on the back side of all that action.

It was reminiscent of that game at GW, which played out very much the same way. In both, the opponents scored at will for long stretches of the second half, Virginia mounted furious rallies late to earn a chance to tie or win, and came up short.

GW did a lot of what we saw Virginia Tech do it Monday night, too, which is cause for concern. Honestly, I have had a hard time since figuring out why more coaches hadn’t used the game tape from George Washington in their game-planning.

What the Colonials did well in November was dump an entry pass into the high post and run backdoors and quick hitters off that, using the space created by drawing out Virginia’s bigs to create driving lanes and spot-up opportunities for their guards.

Virginia Tech’s wrinkle was using the post not for the entry pass, but the screen. The effect was largely the same: keep the lane open, in this case to allow for the dribbles drives off the screen, and the hard roll to the basket by the screener and the open looks for the shooters behind the play.

What stands out in the box score was how much of what Tech was able to accomplish Monday night was statistical noise. The Hokies were 15-of-26 from the floor in the second half, 6-of-8 from three-point range.

This from a team that shoots 34.5 percent from three on the season.

Close out on the threes, and the action in the lane with the dribble drives and post guys rolling does its damage, but the Hokies come up a point or two short.

That’s not me re-litigating an ugly loss into a win, far from it.

London Perrantes was 7-of-9 from three-point range, Anthony Gill was 7-of-9 from the field, and best-case scenario Monday night, involving closing out on threes, UVA wins by a point or two.

The Cavs blasted West Virginia by 16, handing the Mountaineers their only loss so far this season, beat Villanova by 11, and ‘Nova is 12-2.

Virginia has four wins over the top 32 in the KenPom.com power rankings, more than #1 Kansas, #2 Oklahoma and #3 Maryland combined.

That’s the ceiling for this team, which is a bona fide national-title contender.

Virginia Tech is ranked 114th by KenPom.com. There’s your floor.

– Column by Chris Graham

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