AccuWeather reports a robust tropical feature has emerged in the eastern Atlantic and could develop as the week progresses.
The feature, recently departing the coast of africa and moving over open water, has a chance for development in the near future. Strong winds will begin to relax across the eastern Atlantic during the week and will allow this wave to travel through a more suitable environment for strengthening.
According to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck, “It has a chance of organizing and strengthening as long as it stays far enough south and away from dry air and wind shear.”
Wind shear is a fast flow of air well above the sea surface that can prevent tropical systems from developing or limit their strengthening.
Thus far there have been five tropical depressions in the Atlantic to date this year.
Should the system develop a circulation, it would be the sixth tropical depression.
If the system manages to avoid wind shear and dry air to become a tropical storm, it would take on the name Edouard and would be the fifth named system in the Atlantic Basin.
Those with interests in the eastern Caribbean, Bahamas and Bermuda will want to monitor the organization and track of the tropical disturbance currently designated as 91L.
According to AccuWeather.com Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, “91L will track to the west-northwest during the next week and may pass close to the Leeward Islands early next week.”
Steering winds are likely to cause 91L to take a curved path to the northwest, north then the northeast over the next 10 days. The path should keep the system away from land in the United States.
An area of low pressure is expected to develop along the southeastern coast of the United States through the middle of the week. It does not appear likely that this disturbance will become tropical, as it is forecast to get swept out to sea by a cold front.
“Interaction with land and wind shear will likely inhibit development of this system responsible for heavy rain the Southeast this past weekend and into Tuesday in part of the coastal mid-Atlantic,” Kottlowski said.
However, beach weather will not be the greatest across the Outer Banks to Cape Cod. Rough surf and rip currents, in addition to clouds and showers, will put a damper on any plans.
The last system to form in the Atlantic Basin was Tropical Storm Dolly back on Sept. 1 which made landfall near Tampico, Mexico.
September is the heart of the tropical season in the Atlantic, and most systems tend to form in the eastern Atlantic. If dry air and wind shear can weaken enough, climatology would favor development in this area over the next couple of weeks.
– By Brian Lada, Meteorologist for AccuWeather.com
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