If you are looking for a good excuse to buy a new sled or winter snow boots, the forecast for this winter supports that decision.
While last winter was a disappointment in Virginia for snow lovers, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has released its winter outlook, and for many it is good news – predicting both a warmer winter and a snowier winter than last year.
The winter weather patterns will be affected by the Pacific Ocean climate pattern known as El Nino.
“With a strong El Niño and the potential of a super-El Niño, there is a definite lean toward wetter conditions for winter across Virginia,” said Andrew Ellis, a hydroclimate scientist in the College of Natural Resources and Environment at Virginia Tech. “During El Niño years, wetness is often predicated on an increase in coastal storms that originate along the Gulf Coast states.”
Ellis said that the increased moisture and coastal storm track increases the chances that cold air finds moisture more frequently generate a snowier winter overall.
“This is often from a few larger snowfalls,” said Ellis. “Seasonal forecasting, in general, is difficult, and accuracy is limited. Hence, seasonal forecasts are only slight leans in one direction regarding moisture and temperature.”
However, Ellis said, the El Niño and La Niña climate phenomena correlate most strongly with winter climate across the United States. During ‘neutral’ years when those phenomena are not present, the forecast is largely a coin-flip for nearly all of the country.
“However, with this being a strong El Niño year, there is a greater sense of confidence in the winter season forecast,” said Ellis.
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Crystal Graham
