Virginia sophomore forward Ryan Dunn, averaging 4.9 points per game since Jan. 31, is still a first-round pick in the most recent 2024 NBA mock drafts that I reviewed this morning.
It’s hard to imagine him getting a lot of time in the NBA next season with whatever franchise would end up taking him.
The thinking in that front office would have to be, what Virginia’s coaching staff, which has been adept at developing players over the years, couldn’t do to get Dunn to develop any kind of offensive game, maybe our guys in the G League can do.
In the here and now, Dunn, an elite defender, a liability on the offensive end, is Tony Bennett’s problem.
“The main thing with him is, you know, impact the game as a rebounder, as a defender, a shot blocker,” Bennett said, answering a question about Dunn from a reporter on his ACC teleconference on Monday.
Dunn is an ace on the defensive end. According to Synergy Sports, he allows 4.2 points per game on 28.7 percent shooting, both totals ranking in the Top 20 nationally among the 1,202 players with at least 175 defensive possessions on their ledger.
His 2.4 blocked shots per game leads the ACC, and his 7.0 rebounds per game rank 10th.
His impact on the game on defense is already NBA-level.
That Dunn has not developed in any way, shape or form on the offensive end in his two years at Virginia is what’s head-scratching about him.
Dunn, this season, has made 11 jump shots – 11! – in 30 games, shooting 26.8 percent on jumpers, including a 5-of-22 mark (22.7 percent) on unguarded jumpers.
And he hasn’t shown an ability to create his own shot: he has just 23 field-goal attempts from dribble-drives, transition as the ballhandler and isos – 23 in 30 games, so, less than one of those per game.
So, he’s not a threat from the perimeter, he can’t create his own shot – his offense is derivative, coming off basket cuts, passes in transition and offensive rebounds.
The defensive game plan for him is: sag off him if he has the ball on the perimeter, zone off him if he’s setting a screen to help with the guard getting the screen, and just make sure that he doesn’t slip to the basket off that help.
Dunn made a three in the 73-48 loss at Duke on Saturday – he scored nine points on 4-of-9 shooting, 1-of-2 from three in the loss.
That was his best offensive output in more than a month, dating back to his 19-point afternoon in the 69-52 win at Louisville on Jan. 27, on 8-of-10 shooting from the field – seven of the makes being dunks and layups.
He’s going to have to be more than that guy for Virginia to have a chance to do anything meaningful in March, but it’s hard to imagine at this late stage in the season that he can be more than what he’s been.
“He just has to be all he can be and, and again, keep, you know, continuing to improve and work on his shot, but not let one aspect factor in, you know,” Bennett said. “And again, those things are all there. But he’s got to do, you know, a lot for us, and so, I’ll just keep his attention on that and keep encouraging him to just keep battling and getting the work, but not let that enter into affecting the other parts of your game.”
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Chris Graham
