Virginia saw its seven-game win streak end Saturday with a loss at Virginia Tech, a game against a desperate Hokie team that needed the win badly. The Cavaliers, in losing to Tech 74-68, never led.
Tuesday evening (9 p.m. tip), Virginia goes from the frying pan to the fire, as the ‘Hoos host NC State, the hottest team in the ACC, having lost just once this calendar year.
The Wolfpack have beaten Duke, Miami and Wake Forest in the process, with their most recent win a 72-64 over Georgia Tech, in which State needed a 14-3 run in the final four minutes to secure the win.
The Pack features the conference’s leading scorer in Terquavion Smitha among its multiple weapons on offense, including 6’9’’ D.J. Burns, who scored 24 points in the win over Georgia Tech.
Virginia transfer Casey Morsell added 17 for State to help avoid the upset.
Rankings
NC State comes in at No. 22 in this week’s rankings as the Pack sets out on a three-game road trip with the trip to Charlottesville.
The Wolfpack are ranked in the AP poll, while Duke and UNC are not. Not what we expected to begin the season, for sure.
How rare is that? You must go back to 1982 to find the last time NC State was ranked while Duke and UNC were not.
(Note: Duke is ranked in the USA Today coaches poll, in a tie for 24th with Clemson.)
That 1982 season was a good season for the Wolfpack, ending with the Pack winning the national championship.
Wolfpack presents multiple dilemmas for UVA
In addition to the scoring of Smith, who averages 18.5 points per game, and fellow backcourt teammate Jarkel Joiner, who averages just over 16 points per game, Burns could present the most danger to the Cavaliers.
Burns’ size could force Virginia to abandon its small-ball lineup. Burns averages just over 12 points per game and is 6th in the ACC in field goal percentage at 55 percent.
UVA may start small, but if Burns is a quick factor, Tony Bennett may be forced to go to his true bigs. And that could be a problem.
Saturday in Blacksburg, Kadin Shedrick did not play (coaches’ decision), while Francisco Caffaro was ineffective for a handful of minutes.
For Shedrick, it may be now or never
Virginia Tech exploited UVA’s inability to defend at the rim. Shedrick’s DNP-CD against the Hokies was concerning. Shedrick, at 6’11’’, has been an effective rim protector and is one of the best shot blocking threats in the conference. He presents, at least, a challenge to the opposition.
Lately, though, Shedrick has slid further down the Virginia bench, all the way to his DNP against Tech. While UVA had been effective offensively since inserting Ben Vander Plas into the starting lineup, such was not the case Saturday as Vander Plas put a goose egg in the scoring column.
Against the Wolfpack, it is highly likely that the small lineup won’t be effective against Burns, which means Shedrick may need to be effective early and often.
If not, the blueprint to beating Virginia may have already been trademarked.
Projections
- ESPN BPI: Virginia +8.1, 78.8% win probability
- EvanMiya: Virginia 73-65, 78.8% win probability
- KenPom: Virginia 73-66, 74% win probability
- Bart Torvik: Virginia 71-66, 72% win probability
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