Virginia comes off its exam break with a three-game weekend series with Wake Forest knowing what it needs to do: put up Ws.
The Cavaliers (22-21, 13-17 ACC) are 44th in the RPI, in the midst of a host of ACC teams in the 30s, 40s and 50s:
- Florida State (25-17, RPI: 37)
- N.C. State (22-14, RPI: 41)
- Georgia Tech (24-18, RPI: 43)
- North Carolina (21-21, RPI: 46)
- Virginia Tech (27-17, RPI: 47)
- Duke (20-20, RPI: 48)
- Louisville (26-15, RPI: 50)
- Clemson (22-21, RPI: 51)
The ACC really only has three teams that you’d say have sewn up bids: Notre Dame (25-10, RPI: 13), Miami (27-15, RPI: 21) and Pitt (22-13, RPI: 27), though Florida State and Louisville, both ranked most of the season, would seem to be pretty safe, barring a late-season collapse.
That means the last two weekends of ACC play, and then the 12-team ACC Tournament, set for May 25-30 in Uptown Charlotte, will be worth keeping tabs on for movement up, down and otherwise.
For Virginia, the challenge is that the last two weekends of the regular season have the ‘Hoos facing Wake (17-23, RPI: 76) and Boston College (20-25, RPI: 92), meaning they won’t be able to add to their resume any Q1 games.
UVA is currently 14-20 in Q1 games, which reflects aggressive scheduling from Brian O’Connor – the non-conference schedule, which included home-and-homes with Liberty (33-11, RPI: 35) and VCU (32-14, RPI: 39) and a three-game home series with UConn (23-15, RPI: 45), ranks 32nd, third among the ACC teams in the work-to-do category.
Without any more Q1s until Charlotte, Virginia absolutely, positively, needs at the least series wins against Wake and BC, and it wouldn’t hurt to finish out 5-1.
Illustrating that point: WarrenNolan.com’s Predicted RPI has Virginia ranking 60th if the Cavaliers go 4-2 the next two weekends.
An RPI at 60 … ain’t good, not if you’re hoping to be playing somewhere on June 4.
Bottom line: there’s no margin for error.
Story by Chris Graham
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