Bubble Watch: Looking at Virginia among the resumes of the 16 NCAA bubble teams

The consensus that Virginia will be left on the outside looking in at the 2024 NCAA Tournament has taken hold.

UVA (23-10) had seemed to win its way in with its 66-60 OT defeat of Boston College in Thursday’s ACC Tournament quarterfinals.

As recently as five years ago, a team with 23 wins, 13 in the ACC, and a third-place regular-season finish in conference play, would not only be in, but would be a pretty solid seed – up in the area of a four or five.

Think back to the 2017 season, with a Virginia team that was 22-10 in the regular season, 11-7 in the ACC, tied for fifth in the ACC in the regular season, and that team was a five seed in the Big Dance.

That’s your older brother’s ACC.

The ACC got nine NCAA bids in 2017; it’s looking like it will get four – UNC, Duke, Clemson and NC State, which played its way into the field by winning the ACC Tournament – this year.

This means: UVA, with 23 wins, and Pitt, with 22, get left out from the ACC, the NET’s fourth-best conference this year, while the Mountain West, the seventh-best conference in the NET this year, is projected to get six bids.

Makes sense.

Just to provide you with what we call in the news business an explainer, here’s a look at the resumes of the teams on the bubble – based on ESPN bracket guy Joe Lunardi’s Last Four Byes, Last Four In, First Four Out, and Next Four Out.

I caution that this is just an explainer because, I’m not making arguments here for Virginia or Pitt, because that’s pointless.

I’m writing this around noon ET on Sunday; the field is pretty much already set at this point.

This is for entertainment purposes only, as they say.

Resumes

	Computer Avg.	Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4	SOS/NCSOS	Road W-L
Texas A&M (20-14)	41.0	7-7, 6-3, 2-4, 5-0	31/107	6-6
Miss. State (21-13)	35.7	4-9, 4-3, 7-0, 6-1	11/118	2-8
Florida Atlantic (25-8)	35.8	2-2, 8-3, 8-1, 7-2	67/26	5-5
Colorado State (22-10)	47.8	6-7, 3-2, 7-1, 6-0	12/30	4-7
TCU (21-12)	40.2	5-11, 3-1, 5-0, 8-0	85/349	6-5
Michigan State (19-14)	33.7	3-9, 6-5, 6-0, 4-0	10/18	3-7
Colorado (24-10)	31.8	4-5, 6-5, 7-0, 7-0	45/88	4-7
Oklahoma (20-12)	47.0	4-12, 5-0, 3-0/8-0	64/262	3-6
St. John’s (20-13)	41.2	4-10, 6-2, 3-1, 7-0	65/175	5-6
Virginia (23-10)	48.2	2-7, 8-3, 7-0, 6-0	92/140	5-6
Seton Hall (20-12)	58.5	5-8, 4-3, 2-1, 9-0	87/205	5-6
Indiana State (27-6)	39.7	1-4, 4-1, 10-0, 12-1	135/320	9-4
Pitt (22-11)	41.7	4-6, 5-3, 6-2, 7-0	95/314	7-4
Providence (21-13)	54.8	6-9, 3-4, 1-0, 11-0	74/152	4-7
Kansas State (19-14)	59.2	5-8, 4-5, 5-1, 5-0	46/251	2-8
Ohio State (20-13)	48.0	3-7, 3-5, 9-1, 5-0	59/147	2-8

Analysis

Virginia’s computer average ranks 13th among these 16 teams, with the predictive measures (NET, BPI and KenPom) being the killers there (average ranking in those three: 59.3).

There’s where the blowout losses – Virginia lost six games by 19 or more points – are killers.

The 10 wins in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games ties for second in this group.

The zero losses in Quad 3 and Quad 4 games puts Virginia among a total of six teams in this group with zero so-called “bad losses.”

The strength of schedule ranks 13th in this group; the non-conference strength of schedule ranks seventh.

The five road wins ties for fifth.

Seton Hall, Providence, Kansas State and Ohio State are the clear bottom four of this group.

It’s hard for me to see Virginia behind Texas A&M (won head-to-head), Mississippi State, TCU and Oklahoma, all teams that Lunardi has ahead of Virginia in the pecking order.

I would put Florida Atlantic and Indiana State at the top of this list of 16 based on my look at all of the resumes.

I would slide Virginia as basically equals with Colorado State, Michigan State, Colorado, St. John’s and Pitt.

Lunardi has Virginia 11th among these 16; I would put the Cavaliers, along with the other schools in that group of equals that I’ve identified, between three and eight, which would translate to, in the field, for Virginia, probably Last Four In.