NFL Picks – Our Expert Football Picks and Predictions – Free Picks
When the Los Angeles Rams won last year’s Super Bowl, many gamblers scooped sizeable sums of money. Several of these winners followed NFL picks, which recommended a wager on the Rams, sometimes even before the regular season got underway.
Find the best NFL picks and it’s like having your own personal betting advisor – an insider with the knowledge needed to consistently pick NFL winning bets. We’re that expert, ready to feed you the best NFL picks, including NFL parlay picks, that we’ve decided on after looking at stats, form, and much more.
The Latest NFL Picks Today
Looking for the best NFL expert picks? If so, you’ll find them right here. Bookmark this page and check back regularly to see what our experts recommend you bet on next, as every game will be covered with NFL picks here.
2022/23 NFL Favorites
When you’re betting on the NFL, it pays to shop around. There are several sportsbooks out there, each offering their own football odds, and you should bet at the site offering you the best deal. Check out the 2022/23 Super Bowl odds below, which show how wildly odds can fluctuate between sportsbooks.
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Augusta Free Press’ NFL Expert Picks & Predictions
Below, you’ll find the best NFL picks for the 2022/23 season, from the Super Bowl winner to the winner of the MVP award. Take a look at them, then head over to one of our recommended offshore sportsbooks to make your bets.
Our Top NFL Pick to Win the Super Bowl
There are two teams leading the betting currently: Josh Allen’s Buffalo Bills and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, led by the greatest of all time, Tom Brady. The Chiefs also can’t be ruled out, but the AFC West looks stacked, so even making the playoffs will be tougher than ever.
Our pick to come out on top in Super Bowl LVII is the Buffalo Bills – a team that’s never managed to scoop the Vince Lombardi Trophy before. Josh Allen will almost certainly be an MVP contender, while their defense should be one of the best, especially now Tre’Davious White will return after missing last year’s playoffs and Von Miller has come onboard.
NFL Outsider Picks to Win the Super Bowl
Anyone outside of the Bills, Buccaneers and Chiefs could be counted as an outsider. There are plenty of teams that, if things go well, can take the big prize. The Packers are always dangerous, while the Rams are certainly capable of repeating last year’s victory. The 49ers are also fancied by many to make a deep run and should be included in any list of the best NFL picks to win Super Bowl LVII.
However, our pick is the Los Angeles Chargers, led by the impressive Justin Herbert. They’ve been slowly creating a fantastic squad over the past few years, and now could be their year. They’d be up with the favorites if they weren’t in the AFC West, undoubtedly the toughest division in football.
NFL Picks to Win the NFC Championship
The NFC is arguably the weaker of the two divisions, although there are still a few teams that could certainly challenge for the Super Bowl. The Bucs are favorites to take the crown, but only just, as the Packers are also strongly fancied. Don’t forget the Rams either, who have managed to keep much of their Super Bowl winning squad together.
Outside shots for the NFC Championship include the Cowboys and the 49ers. However, the Bucs, even without Gronk, look like the best bet. Brady is still imperious, the offensive line is one of the best around, and there are many weapons for Brady to use, including the re-signed Chris Godwin.
NFL Picks to Win the AFC Championship
The AFC looks likely to be incredibly competitive. The Bills are favorites with the bookies, while the winner of the AFC West is backed to go far – the Chiefs, Chargers, and Broncos are all highly rated by the bookies. Also, don’t forget the Bengals, who surprised everyone by reaching the Super Bowl last season.
The sensible bet here is on the Bills. They’re in a simple division and should not only romp to the AFC East title, but also take the position of top seeds. Their biggest rivals? Whichever team triumphs in the AFC West. However, betting on teams from the AFC West is risky, as there’s no guarantee any of them will even reach the playoffs, such is the strength of the division.
NFL Picks to Win the NFC East
The NFC East isn’t a strong division. Anyone looking to bet on the winner of the division should put aside the Washington Commanders and New York Giants – neither have the means to challenge for top spot.
This leaves the Cowboys – the favorites with most sportsbooks – and the Eagles. The Cowboys are reigning divisional champions, but they’ve lost several key players, including Connor Williams and Amari Cooper. The Eagles have added to their line-up intelligently and are on their way up, which is why we’re picking them to win the NFC East.
NFL Picks to Win the NFC North
The NFC North looks highly unlikely to be won by any team other than the Green Bay Packers, and this is reflected by the exceptionally low odds offered on them to take the crown. It’s easy to see why, as the Packers, led by Rodgers, have the best squad by far, and could even take top seeds in the NFC, such is the weakness of their divisional opponents.
Of the other teams, the Minnesota Vikings are the most likely to spring a shock. Both the Lions and Bears can be written off entirely, as neither has the strong core of talent needed to mount a challenge in the division. Don’t expect either to surpass their performances of last year.
NFL Picks to Win the NFC South
The NFC South has been a strong division over the past few years. Nowadays, it’s something of a one-horse race, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, under the control of the evergreen Tom Brady, winning the title for the past three years.
However, the Saints are looking like a decent team this year, having recruited some stand-out talent during the offseason, including Tyrann Mathieu. They should push the Bucs hard, but we think they’ll eventually end up second. The Falcons and the Panthers can be written off – they’re nowhere near strong enough to cause the top two teams any trouble.
NFL Picks to Win the NFC West
The NFC West contains the current Super Bowl champions, and the Los Angeles Rams are favorites to top the division – despite losing both Von Miller and OBJ in the offseason. The 49ers are also looking strong and much depends on whether Trey Lance is an upgrade to Jimmy Garoppolo. If he is, the 49ers look a great bet.
The Cardinals also can’t be counted out, especially if they start the season in the same way they started last season, winning their first seven games. Kliff Kingsbury has been building something in Phoenix and this could be their year. Forget about the Seahawks – they’re the weakest by far and have a tough schedule.
NFL Picks to Win the AFC East
We now move into the AFC, starting with the AFC East – home of Super Bowl favorites the Buffalo Bills. Nobody looks likely to run them close, and a clean sweep of their divisional rivals is a very real possibility for John Allen and his team. Expect them to be the top seed in the AFC when the regular season comes to an end.
Elsewhere, the Dolphins are the best of the rest, although they’re still building something down in Florida. The Patriots are average at best, while the hapless Jets can be written off without any thought. Don’t be surprised to see only the Bills qualifying for the playoffs from this division, although the Dolphins have a fighting chance.
NFL Picks to Win the AFC North
The AFC North looks set to be an exceptionally interesting division this year, with three teams able to take top spot – only the Steelers are unfancied. The favorites with the bookies are the Ravens, and a look at their schedule shows they could win 12+ games during the regular season. Expect Lamar Jackson to shine again and don’t be surprised if he’s in the MVP race.
The Browns also look decent, and with Deshaun Watson they finally have an elite-level quarterback. However, our pick to win the AFC North is the Bengals. Their draft was defense-heavy, but most agree the team remains a balanced one, while Joe Burrow can be expected to have a big season.
NFL Picks to Win the AFC South
The AFC South is almost certainly the weakest division, with none of the four teams given much of a chance of making the Super Bowl. The Houston Texans are a mess currently, and they’ll be lucky to pick up a win this season, while the Jaguars still haven’t reached great heights, despite the addition of Trevor Lawrence in the 2021 draft.
That means that the best NFL picks for this division are the Indianapolis Colts or the Tennessee Titans. The Colts are favorites and the acquisition of Matt Ryan is an exciting one. However, the Titans look solid, and if Ryan Tannehill can return to form, they will pose a real challenge. Indy are probably the better team, but the superior odds make Tennessee too good to turn down.
NFL Picks to Win the AFC West
Now we come to undoubtedly the most exciting division in football: the AFC West. There are three teams with a chance of topping the standings, and of these, the favorites are the Kansas City Chiefs. They’ve been the AFC’s best team over the last three years and in Patrick Mahomes, they have the heir-apparent to Tom Brady’s crown.
The Chargers are also incredibly strong, with Justin Herbert growing into one of the most exciting quarterbacks in the league. Then there’s the Broncos, rejuvenated by the signing of Russell Wilson. The Raiders are the only team without much of a chance of winning this division. If we have to pick a name from the list, we’ll go with the Kansas City Chiefs, but the Chargers are also a decent bet.
NFL Picks to Win the MVP Award
Now we come to the awards for individual players, and we start with the biggest: the season MVP. As usual, this award will almost certainly go to a quarterback, but which one? Currently, Josh Allen leads the betting, and he’s helped by the fact that he’ll be able to boost his numbers against some of the NFL’s weakest teams.
However, Mahomes and Herbert can’t be ruled out, and nor can Tom Brady, who seems to always be in the race. Don’t be surprised if Russell Wilson also has an impressive season, while Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson could also be in the picture. However, we can’t ignore the big odds currently being given to Aaron Rodgers, which makes a bet on him a great choice.
NFL Picks to Win the Defensive Player of the Year Award
Myles Garrett and Micah Parsons are the early frontrunners with bookies to be crowned defensive player of the year. However, there are several names that could feasibly win the prize, including last year’s winner, T.J. Watt of the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Some of the other best NFL picks include Nick Bosa, Joey Bosa, and Chase Young. Don’t ignore Von Miller either, who will be going after another Super Bowl ring, this time in Buffalo. However, our pick for the prize next season goes to Aaron Donald, the LA Rams defensive tackle and future hall of famer who took home the award in 2017, 2018, and 2020.
NFL Picks to Win the Offensive Player of the Year Award
Cooper Kupp is the current holder of this award and goes into the 2022/23 season as joint favorite, along with Jonathan Taylor. Nick Chubb is also in the conversation, as always, while Davante Adams and Christian McCaffrey are also names to watch.
However, we’re going with someone who has already proved he can dominate, as well as someone looking to get back to the top: Derrick Henry. The Tennessee pass game looks to have improved, which should distract defenses and give Henry room to run. If his injury is truly healed, he could quite easily win his second OPOY award.
NFL Picks to Win the Defensive Rookie of the Year Award
Next up, we come to the Defensive Rookie of the Year award, last won by Micah Parsons of the Dallas Cowboys. There are plenty of candidates going into the new season, including number one draft pick Travon Walker, Devin Lloyd of the Jags, Derek Stingly Jr. of the Texans, and the favorite with the bookies, Aidan Hutchinson.
However, our top tip to be Defensive Rookie of the Year is Kayvon Thibodeaux of the NY Giants. The pass rushing specialist looks like he’ll slot into the NFL nicely, especially with what’s expected to be a blitz-heavy Giants defense. Expect plenty of sacks for Thibodeaux, and these always get the attention of those voting for the award.
NFL Picks to Win the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award
This year sees the early candidates for Offensive Rookie of the Year dominated by wide receivers, with six drafted in the first round. Top bets include Chris Olave of the Saints, Drake London of the Falcons, and Garrett Wilson of the Jets. Also, keep an eye on Skyy Moore, drafted in the second round by Kansas City, who recently lost Tyreek Hill to Miami.
However, we’re going to ignore the bookies, who have Kenny Pickett as favorite, and instead opt for Christian Watson, the wide receiver from Green Bay. He might not get as much game time as some other names, but his price is one that can’t be ignored. Treylon Burks of the Titans could also be a great bet.
NFL Picks to Win the Coach of the Year
There are several potential candidates for the Coach of the Year award, including Brandon Staley, Dan Campbell, and Nick Sirianni. However, the bookies have Brian Daboll of the NY Giants as their top pick.
We’re not going to go for one of the favorites, and instead we’re going to opt for Mike McDaniel. The Dolphins look like a team on the up, and while they won’t rival the Bills, they could still reach the playoffs, which would be a huge success for a team that’s only reached the playoffs twice since 2002. His odds are also superb, which can’t be ignored.
What are NFL Picks?
NFL picks are predictions on what will happen in the NFL. They could be predictions on a game result, predictions on the Super Bowl winners, or much more. They’re made to give you a helping hand when you place your NFL bets.
We don’t just pluck our NFL picks from thin air. Instead, our experts spend a huge amount of time immersing themselves in football, gaining the knowledge needed to make intelligent picks that could really win you money. This ensures they’re some of the best NFL picks around.
What’s more, our NFL betting experts weigh up the odds for each betting option, ensuring you always get the best value when you’re betting.
NFL Picks Against the Spread
In betting, the spread levels the playing field, deducting points from the favorite and adding points to the underdog. Betting against the spread is another way of saying you’re betting on the underdog to win after the spread has been taken into account.
If you bet against the spread, your chosen team doesn’t necessarily have to win the match. Instead, they just mustn’t lose by more than the spread. For example, if the Dolphins have a +7.5 spread against the Bills, they will win providing they don’t lose by more than 7.5 points.
This type of betting can lead to some impressive wins, which is why it’s so popular. Our best NFL picks against the spread are always carefully considered and designed to maximize the money you can win from NFL betting.
NFL Picks and Parlays
NFL picks and parlays go together perfectly. Parlays are bets that combine several selections, and to win, all selections must be winners. Because it’s tougher to pick a winning parlay bet, the odds you receive are often huge – it’s not unusual for bettors to win six-figure sums from parlay betting after following the best NFL picks, and sometimes more.
An example of a parlay bet would be wagering that Kansas City, Miami, Philadelphia, New Orleans, and Seattle are all going to win their games. To win the bet, each must come out on top – even one team losing will see you lose. The more selections you add to a parlay, the higher the odds will rise.
Our experts spend ages coming up with their NFL parlay picks, looking at everything from form to injuries to come up with the most balanced parlay predictions around. They’re not always winners, but just one winning parlay bet can be worth thousands of dollars, or even more.
Best NFL Betting Sites
Once you’ve checked out our best NFL picks, you’ll need to find a place to bet. There are plenty of fantastic sportsbooks available to US bettors, and we’ve listed the very best football betting sites below.
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Where to Find NFL Expert Picks
If you’re looking for the best NFL picks, then check out our section at the top of this page. You’ll also find plenty of places offering them online. BetUS – one of our top NFL betting sites for free bets – also offers great picks throughout the season.
YouTube is also a great place to get some of the best NFL picks, and one of the top channels is NFL Podcasts, which hosts the fantastic Around the NFL show. Twitter also has many tipsters – just search for the game you’re looking to bet on and plenty of tips should appear. Of course, Twitter can be hit and miss, with the best NFL tips mixed with some of the worst.
How we Make NFL Picks and Predictions
We don’t want to make average NFL picks. Instead, we want to give you the best NFL picks around. So, how exactly do we do that?
First, we’ll look at the form of each team. However, we’re not just looking to see their recent win percentage, as we’ll also be looking at how well different positions are playing and how that will affect the game. For example, is the Chargers run defense looking shaky, ready to be pounded by Tennessee’s in form running game?
Next, we’ll look at how the teams have matched up against each other over recent years. Does one team seem to have a hold over the other? Or are games generally even affairs? Of course, history isn’t everything – we’ll always balance it up with other factors.
We’ll then look to see if any players will be ruled out of the game with injury. It goes without saying that the loss of Mahomes, Brady, or a player of similar standing will hugely affect our picks. However, we’ll also look to see how less newsworthy injuries have affected the strength of a team and whether the opposition can exploit this.
Next, we’ll look to see if there are any new additions to the team and how they could impact on the result. This is an important step early in the season, when several new players are still being bedded in. However, new players do also sometimes pop up later in the season as well.
Check the Odds
The best NFL picks don’t just tell you which team is likely to win – they also tell you about the betting opportunities with the best odds. For example, the top tipsters don’t simply pick the favorites every time. Instead, if there’s a great price on the underdogs, they should be recommended. Balancing the chances of winning with odds is the most important aspect of making the best NFL picks.
Make Our Prediction
Only once we’ve gone through all the above steps will we make our pick. You can then decide whether it’s a great bet and, if it is, head to one of the many sportsbooks or betting apps offering NFL betting and place your wager. Hopefully it’s a winning one!
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