Liberty. Can throw the ball. Has six wins. Just played BYU tough.
Flip side: lost to Rutgers, shut out by Syracuse. Gives up a ton of points.
You’re a UVA Football fan, so you’re looking for some comfort heading into Saturday’s game in Scott Stadium, and you’re not going to accept anything offered in that context, because your tendency is to assume that the sky is falling.
Your instincts in this respect are good, in relation to the Liberty offense. Problem for Liberty is its defense, but more on that in a moment.
First, that offense. Yeah, it’s good.
Senior quarterback Stephen Calvert has thrown for 2,941 yards and 23 TDs, with three INTs, in 2019, completing 61.5 percent of his passes, with a 158.4 passer rating.
His top target is wideout Antonio Gandy-Golden, a 6’4”, 220-pound senior who has 1,244 yards receiving on 64 catches this year.
Virginia schemed and executed against Liberty in last season’s 45-24 win in Charlottesville, intercepting Calvert three times, limiting him to 149 yards through the air, on 15-of-27 passing, and Gandy-Golden had just two catches for 38 yards.
It helped that UVA had Bryce Hall at corner as part of its scheming and execution, and his presence on the sidelines in street clothes on Saturday after season-ending surgery is likely to be mentioned early and often in the TV broadcast.
Virginia could also use the services of veteran safety Brenton Nelson, also lost for the season to injury.
Assume that without those two, Virginia’s scheme on Saturday will have to focus on offering help to the side of the field that Gandy-Golden lines up on, opening things up for senior wideout Damian King (20 catches, 9.2 yards per catch in 2019), 6’4” freshman Noah Frith (three catches in each of Liberty’s two most recent games, against BYU and UMass) and 6’3” senior tight end Zac Foutz (eight catches, three receiving TDs in 2019).
The run game could also benefit from the extra attention that will have to be paid to Gandy-Golden, and Liberty has a pair of backs who can do damage on the inside – Frankie Hickson (637 yards, seven TDs, 5.3 yards per carry in 2019) and Joshua Mack (621 yards, five TDs, 6.0 yards per carry in 2019).
The names are the same from a year ago, but the scheme on offense from Liberty will look a bit different under first-year head coach Hugh Freeze, whose approach involves a lot more play-action and run-pass options than what Virginia saw from the Flames in 2018.
“Liberty does a really nice job with that component of the game, so the runs are effective, the passes off the run are effective,” UVA coach Bronco Mendenhall said at his Monday presser. “Really, if forced to just be a dropback team, that’s probably the least effective thing they do, but they’re really not in that situation very much.”
So, case made, Liberty can and probably will move the ball.
Where the Flames struggle is on the defensive side of the line of scrimmage.
The Liberty D surrenders 424.3 yards per game, ranking 89th among the 130 D1 teams.
It’s an equal-opportunity type thing for opposing offenses, which throw for 231.3 yards per game, at a 143.0 pass-efficiency rate, run for 193.0 yards per game, and 4.7 yards per carry.
You’d go into this one thinking that, ideally, Virginia could generate yards on the ground from its running backs, which means sophomore Wayne Taulapapa (399 yards, 11 TDs, 4.1 yards per carry in 2019), but, yeah, you know.
For whatever reason, the UVA offense has not been able to get much going with its running game that doesn’t involve senior quarterback Bryce Perkins (493 yards, eight TDs in 2019), which, obvs, carries the risk of Perkins, averaging 16.4 touches per game on the ground in 2019, being exposed to injury.
The thought going into the Georgia Tech game was similar – get the ground game going against a team that struggles to defend opponents’ rushing attacks – and yet Perkins was called on to run 21 times in that one.
Virginia will score enough points to win this one. Liberty will score enough to make it interesting. Bryce Perkins will run more than you will be comfortable watching.
The focus then turns to Black Friday. Which will get your angst about the sky falling to a historic level in short order.
Column by Chris Graham
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