Joe Lunardi, somehow, has Virginia at the top of his list of Next Four Out, right there with Virginia Tech, which is last on his list of First Four Out.
Don’t think about where the ‘Hoos would be if that prayer three hadn’t been answered at the end of the Florida State game.
Or Virginia hadn’t lost at JMU or at home against Navy.
Can’t do nuthin’ about any of that.
Virginia profile
(data through March 7)
Record: 18-12 (12-8 ACC)
Last 12: 7-5
SOS/OOC: 60/130
Quad 1: 3-6
Quad 2: 4-1
Quad 3: 4-4
Quad 4: 7-1
Road: 6-6
Neutral: 2-0
Avg. NET opponent: 124
Avg. NET win: 157
Avg. NET loss: 75
BPI: 59
NET: 77
Sagarin: 58
KPI: 69
SOR: 64
KenPom: 72
Avg: 77.5
So, you’re saying there’s a chance?
There is opportunity ahead this week in Brooklyn, which for the Cavaliers begins Wednesday night in the second round of the ACC Tournament.
Virginia (18-12, 12-8 ACC) gets the winner of Louisville (12-18, 6-14 ACC) vs. Georgia Tech (12-19, 5-15 ACC), who play late Tuesday in Round 1.
The ‘Hoos are 3-0 against the two, beating Louisville 64-52 in Charlottesville on Jan. 24, and 71-61 in the Yum! Center this past weekend, and prevailing at home over Georgia Tech on Feb. 12, 63-53.
All were double-digit wins, but none of the three were what you’d call easy. Virginia had big leads in both games against Louisville, but both times, the Cardinals fought their way back into the games and forced the Cavaliers to close things out.
Georgia Tech, similarly, fell behind big early, trailing by as many as 17 in the first half, before cutting the deficit to six later on.
So, win on Wednesday, then it would be on to North Carolina (23-8, 15-5 ACC) late night on Thursday.
The Tar Heels, you may remember, beat the bejeezus out of Virginia in Chapel Hill in early January. The 74-58 final doesn’t begin to describe how bad that beatdown was.
Armando Bacot, who should have been ACC Player of the Year, had 29 points and 22 rebounds in 38 minutes. The guys responsible for checking him, Kadin Shedrick and Francisco Caffaro, combined for two points and two rebounds in 36 minutes.
Maybe Tony Bennett could spin a tale to his team about how UNC coach Hubert Davis played Bacot all 40 minutes just to run up the score as the cornerstone of his effort to motivate his team.
He wouldn’t be nearly as far off as Mike Krzyzewski’s spin on the Virginia-Duke game in the 1983 ACC Tournament if he did.
What needs to happen
Virginia is out with a loss on Wednesday. No bones about that.
A win over North Carolina (NET: 33) would be a fourth Quad 1 win. That might-h-h-h-t be enough to get Virginia an invite to the Big Dance.
Notre Dame (NET: 50) is the two seed. Assuming the Irish would get to a hypothetical semifinal matchup with a hypothetical Virginia, that could be another Quad 1 opportunity for the ‘Hoos.
A win there, and, yes, sure, a win on Saturday would give Virginia AQ status. But there’s no way Virginia would get to the final, lose, and not get in.
No way.
Story by Chris Graham
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