Another sluggish start: Syracuse led #2 UVA 13-2 inside of seven minutes to go in the first half Monday night. Louisville led 15-3 six minutes in and 19-5 two minutes later.
The Cavs rallied to win by 12 at the ‘Cuse, and Louisville had to hit a jumper with two seconds left to upset Virginia Saturday.
Which is saying that UVA is still having the impact on opponents that it normally does, wearing them down over the course of the game. The difference being that it’s coming as part of a comeback, not as the impetus to separation.
Deceptively good offensive effort for Cardinals: Louisville scored on 28 of its 56 possessions, and averaged 1.054 points per possession.
Only three teams had a better ppp rating against Virginia this year: Maryland (1.066 ppp in a 76-65 UVA win on Dec. 3), Davidson (1.108 ppp in an 83-72 UVA win on Dec. 30) and Duke (1.131 ppp in a 69-63 Duke win on Jan. 31).
Just two other Virginia opponents scored 1.000 points per possession or better for a game this year: Miami (1.039 ppp in an 89-80 double-OT UVA win on Jan. 3), and Notre Dame (1.000 ppp in a 62-56 UVA win on Jan. 10.
Some perspective on this: That’s six games out of 30 this year that a Virginia opponent has scored a point per possession or better.
The D1 average, according to basketball stats guru Ken Pomeroy, is 1.021 points per possession.
Virginia offense: Virginia scored on 24 of its 55 possessions and averaged 1.036 points per possession, below its season average of 1.131 points per possession.
More perspective: UVA has a below-average offensive output (8.3 percent below average), a bottom-20 percent defensive effort, and lost by two on the road at #14 making the opponent get a shot from a 37.9 percent shooter averaging 2.6 points per game to eek out the win at home on Senior Night.
What you saw, and what the stats said: What you saw was Virginia turning the ball over, and Louisville getting points on runouts.
What the stats said – Louisville had a modest 17-15 advantage in points off turnovers.
What you saw was Louisville getting a lot of offensive rebounds and second-chance points.
What the stats said – Louisville had a modest 9-8 advantage in offensive rebounds, and second-chance points was a draw, at 12-12.
What happened to Gill? Anthony Gill had nine points on 4-of-5 shooting from the field in the first half, but Gill picked up three fouls in the second half, and only played seven minutes in the second half, not getting a point, not even getting a shot off from the field, and snaring just one rebound.
Mike Tobey was underwhelming in what was essentially a switchout for Gill in the second half. Tobey played 13 minutes in the second half, scoring three points and pulling down four rebounds.
– Column by Chris Graham
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