Virginia, according to coach Tony Bennett, didn’t play like it was ready for Northeastern, a middle-of-the-pack 200+ KenPom CAA team that was on the verge of running the Cavaliers out of the gym for a brief moment on Saturday.
UVA (9-1, 1-0 ACC) got its footing back and rallied for a 56-54 win.
Next up: a likely NCAA Tournament team, Memphis, on the road, on Tuesday night.
Memphis (8-2) has won three straight (VCU, Texas A&M and Clemson) since losing two straight (Villanova, Ole Miss).
Coach Penny Hardaway, in his sixth season, has, surprisingly, given his recruiting, only led the Tigers to two NCAA Tournaments, with just one tourney win, in 2022.
The matchup of the night figures to be Tigers’ leading scorer David Jones, a 6’6” small forward (20.3 ppg, 6.5 rebounds/g, 45.0% FG, 38.5% 3FG) vs. Virginia’s All-World defender Ryan Dunn (opponent counting numbers: 3.2 ppg, 18.8% FG).
You can bet that the NBA scouts in the house will have their eyes on this one, and the matchup between Memphis point guard Jahvon Quinerly (13.7 ppg, 4.9 assists/g, 45.4% FG, 30.4% 3FG) and UVA’s Reece Beekman (opponent counting numbers: 5.2 ppg, 26.2% FG).
Dunn is getting lottery-pick love in the 2024 mock drafts, and Beekman looks to go late in the first round.
They can each make some money with how they play in this one on Tuesday night.
Jones had 22 points (6-of-14 FG, 1-of-5 3FG, 9-of-12 FT) in the 79-77 win over Clemson over the weekend; Quinerly had 17 points (6-of-14 FG, 1-of-6 3FG, 4-of-4 FT) and six assists.
Going back to the 81-75 win over A&M, Jones had 29, and Quinerly 24.
The Tigers aren’t great from the perimeter (33.5% from three, 192nd nationally), but they get a fair amount of their offense in the paint (42.6% of their shots are at the rim, which ranks in the top third nationally), and they’re efficient there (59.0% FG).
The big difference between these two is tempo. Memphis averages 73.6 possessions per game (KenPom: 19th), with 16.0 possessions per game coming in transition (Virginia averages 61.7 possessions per game total; 7.2 possessions in transition).
Virginia almost always (OK, always) wins the tempo battle, so the question will be, who will be better in the halfcourt?
Memphis, per numbers from Synergy Sports, averages 0.957 points per possession in its halfcourt sets; Virginia averages 0.962 PPP.
Slight advantage to Virginia there, exacerbated by the advantage that UVA has on defense (UVA ranks second nationally in KenPom, allowing .900 PPP; Memphis is 30th, allowing 0.962 PPP).
KenPom gives Memphis, which plays its home games in the FedEx Forum, also home to the NBA’s Memphis Grizzlies, a 3.8-point home-court advantage.
Maybe add a smidge to that for the fact that this is Virginia’s first true road game.
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Chris Graham
