Obama-Powell? Data suggests it could be a winning ticket

Analysis by Chris Graham
[email protected]

I’ve not heard any talk about Colin Powell being on Barack Obama’s short list for vice-presidential nominees, though apparently it wouldn’t be a bad idea.

A recent Zogby International poll suggests that the former secretary of state would add the most cachet to the Obama ticket among independent voters and would give former Democratic Party presidential contender Hillary Clinton a run for her money among Democrats.

The Zogby data had 43 percent of independent voters saying that they would be more likely to vote for Obama if he were to name Powell, who served as secretary of state in the first term of current president George W. Bush’s administration, as his running mate. Nine percent of independent voters said a Powell choice would make them less likely to vote for Obama. The corresponding numbers for a Hillary Clinton choice were 33 percent more likely and 26 percent less likely, with Clinton leading Powell among Democratic voters, with numbers of 47 percent more likely and 15 percent less likely regarding a Clinton choice and 42 percent more likely and 12 percent less likely for a Powell choice.

A Tim Kaine choice would not register as well with independents and Democrats, according to the Zogby rendering. An equal number of independent voters polled by Zogby, 8 percent each, declared themselves more likely and less likely to vote for Obama should Kaine be the VP nominee. Eight percent of Democratic voters said they would be more likely to vote for Obama with Kaine on the ticket, with 10 percent saying they would be less likely.

Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee appear to be running neck-and-neck on the Republican vice-presidential side from a look at the Zogby numbers. Romney has slightly better pull among independent voters (30 percent more likely to vote for John McCain with Romney on the GOP ticket, and 13 percent less likely, versus 29 percent more likely and 14 percent less likely for Huckabee), and among Republican voters (41 percent more likely and 8 percent less likely, versus 40 percent more likely and 11 percent less likely for Huckabee. Connecticut independent senator Joe Lieberman comes in a distant third in the Zogby data, with independent voters appearing to be less likely to vote for McCain with Lieberman on the ticket, though 26 percent of Republican voters said that they would be more likely to vote for McCain with Lieberman on the ticket.