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NFL Divisional Round Preview: What to look for in this weekend’s games

Scott Ratcliffe
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Photo: NFL

The Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs kicks off Saturday, with four more entertaining matchups on the docket this weekend. When all the dust settles late Sunday night, we’ll be down to four teams who will battle it out next week for a trip to the Super Bowl in February.

Six teams were eliminated after an exciting Wildcard round over the weekend, while the league’s top two squads will begin their respective postseason quests after a week off.

Fresh off one of the most memorable comebacks in playoff history, Jacksonville’s reward is a trip to Arrowhead Stadium to face the AFC’s top seed, Kansas City, to get things started at 4:30 p.m. on Saturday.

The Chiefs enjoyed a first-round bye after finishing the regular season with a record of 14-3, and KC quarterback Patrick Mahomes was the only player in the league to throw for over 5,000 yards in 2022-23 (5,250).

Kansas City may have lost talented wideout Tyreek Hill to Miami in the offseason, but Mahomes proved all season long that this year’s crop of receivers are more than capable of putting up similar results.

Tight end Travis Kelce led the team with 1,338 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns, while offseason additions Juju Smith-Schuster (933 yards) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (687 yards) have also been reliable targets.

The Jaguars, meanwhile, erased a 27-point deficit against the Chargers last weekend, making the third-largest comeback in NFL postseason history just to get to the second weekend.

Trevor Lawrence threw three interceptions in the first half — three of them to Asante Samuel Jr. — but redeemed himself after halftime with a rally for the ages that included three touchdown tosses.

Trailing 27-0 late in the second quarter, Lawrence connected with Evan Engram with 24 seconds left in the first half to get the Jags on the scoreboard and jumpstart the rally. From there, the former Clemson signal caller threw for two more scores in the third quarter to pull his team within 10, 30-20, heading into the fourth.

With 5:25 remaining, Lawrence found Christian Kirk for six and then ran in the two-point conversion himself to trim the once-commanding Los Angeles lead down to two, and Jacksonville walked it off with a 36-yard Riley Patterson field goal as time expired.

Will the Jaguars (9-8) have anything left in the tank against the high-powered Chiefs? Vegas doesn’t seem to think so, as Jacksonville is an 8.5-point underdog as of Wednesday evening.

On Saturday night, the Giants (10-7-1) travel to Lincoln Financial Field to face Philadelphia, the No. 1 seed in the NFC, at 8:15. The Eagles, who also finished 14-3 during the regular season, are listed as 7.5-point favorites against their NFC East rivals.

After setting a franchise record with the 14 victories, the Eagles enter the playoffs having lost two of their last three regular-season contests without MVP candidate Jalen Hurts under center.

Hurts returned in Week 18, as Philadelphia completed the sweep of the Giants in their two regular-season meetings (won by 26 in the Big Apple on Dec. 11 and then by six in the finale on Jan. 8). The Eagles have won 7-of-8 at home this season, while the Giants are 4-4 on the road.

New York prevailed in Minneapolis over the weekend, however, as Daniel Jones threw his second touchdown of the day to give his team a 24-14 lead over the Vikings in the third quarter.

Minnesota knotted it up at 24-apiece before Saquon Barkley’s go-ahead touchdown run — his second of the game — put the G-men ahead to stay.

In his first career playoff game, Jones became the only player in postseason history to throw for 300-plus yards (301) and two touchdowns while also rushing for 70 yards or more (78) in a single game.

Barkley, who accounted for 109 all-purpose yards in the upset win, had more rushing yards during the regular season (1,312) than any other player remaining in the playoffs, while Philly’s Miles Sanders would be second on that list with 1,269.

If Hurts is anything close to full strength, it could be a long day for the Giants’ defense, as he registered 217 passing yards and two touchdowns to go with 77 yards and another score on the ground in the first meeting. By contrast, Hurts only averaged 1.4 yards per carry (9 rushes for 13 yards) in Week 18 against the same defense.

Shifting to Sunday, the AFC’s third-seeded Bengals travel to No. 2 Buffalo at 3 p.m., in a highly anticipated “rematch” of the Week 17 Monday-night matchup in Cincinnati that was canceled after Bills second-year safety Damar Hamlin suffered cardiac arrest on the field during the game.

Hamlin is back at home and is steadily recovering, and his teammates will no doubt continue to dedicate their efforts to their sidelined teammate from here on out.

The Bills (13-3 in the regular season) are favored by 5.5 points Sunday, as Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and Company held on to defeat AFC North foe Miami by a field goal in the Wildcard round.

Allen threw for 352 yards and 3 touchdowns, with the majority of that output winding up in the hands of Diggs (114 yards) and Gabe Davis (113 yards).

The Dolphins rallied from a 17-point deficit, scoring 24 unanswered points to lead by a touchdown in the third quarter, but the Bills survived and advanced.

The defending AFC champion Bengals (12-4) got past division rival Baltimore last week in the opening round, after the two teams split in the regular season.

Cinci defensive end Sam Hubbard turned out to be one of the more unlikely playoff heroes in recent memory, as his 98-yard fumble return in the fourth quarter changed the entire outlook of the contest.

The Ravens were on the verge of taking the lead as the game went under the 12-minute mark, but as he attempted to leap over the goal line, Baltimore QB Tyler Huntley coughed it up into the hands of Hubbard, who now owns the longest fumble return for a touchdown in playoff history.

Joe Burrow has led the Bengals to victories in each of their last nine games, with a healthy Ja’Marr Chase averaging 87.5 yards per game and hauling in 4 touchdowns since his return to the lineup in early December.

If that matchup isn’t enough to keep NFL fans glued to their TV sets, the weekend then concludes at 6:30 p.m. Sunday in San Francisco, as the surging, fifth-seeded Cowboys go up against the second-seeded, red-hot 49ers, winners of their last 11 games.

The two longtime foes have a history of thrilling postseason clashes, and this weekend’s tilt could very well follow suit. The Niners (13-4) are listed as 4-point favorites after taking care of business against NFC West foe Seattle on Saturday with a huge second half.

“Mr. Irrelevant,” Brock Purdy, looks more like a seasoned veteran than the last pick in the 2022 draft, as he’s yet to lose a game since taking over for injured starter Jimmy Garoppolo during the win over Miami on Dec. 4.

After averaging 152.7 passing yards per game in the regular season, Purdy exploded for 332 yards and 3 touchdowns (no interceptions) while rushing for another against the Seahawks in his postseason debut.

Christian McCaffrey rushed for 119 yards, Deebo Samuel went off for 133 yards and a score on just six catches, and San Francisco eventually cruised to the 18-point win, outscoring Seattle 25-6 after halftime.

The Cowboys (12-5) defeated Tom Brady and the Buccaneers on Monday night, as Dak Prescott had one of the best games of his career against the Bucs, going for over 300 yards and 4 touchdowns — something no other Dallas QB has ever done in a playoff game.

Prescott also rushed for a touchdown in the convincing win, with tight end Dalton Schultz hauling in seven receptions for 95 yards and a pair of scores (all team highs).

The Cowboys will be facing the league’s top defensive unit, as the 49ers have held nine of those last 11 victims under 21 points, including a streak of eight-straight such performances. During the regular season, San Francisco allowed a league-low 300.6 yards per game, a league-low 77.7 rushing yards per game, a league-low 16.3 points per game, and posted a league-high turnover differential of plus-13.

NFL Playoff Schedule

Wildcard Round

Saturday, Jan. 14

San Francisco 41, Seattle 23

Jacksonville 31, LA Chargers 30

Sunday, Jan. 15

Buffalo 34, Miami 31

NY Giants 31, Minnesota 24

Cincinnati 24, Baltimore 17

Monday

Dallas 31, Tampa Bay 14

Divisional Round

Saturday

Jacksonville at Kansas City, 4:30 p.m. (NBC)

NY Giants at Philadelphia, 8:15 p.m. (FOX)

Sunday

Cincinnati at Buffalo, 3 p.m. (CBS)

Dallas at San Francisco, 6:30 p.m. (FOX)

Conference Championships

Sunday, Jan. 29

NFC Championship, 3 p.m. (FOX)

AFC Championship, 6:30 p.m. (CBS)

Super Bowl LVII

Sunday, Feb. 12

AFC champion vs. NFC champion, TBD (FOX)

Super Bowl Odds

Odds to win Super Bowl LVII outright

As of Jan. 18

  1. Kansas City +310
  2. Buffalo +350
  3. San Francisco +380
  4. Philadelphia +525
  5. Cincinnati +800
  6. Dallas +850
  7. NY Giants +3000
  8. Jacksonville +3500

To Win AFC

  1. Kansas City +145
  2. Buffalo +165
  3. Cincinnati +400
  4. Jacksonville +1300

To Win NFC

  1. San Francisco +160
  2. Philadelphia +165
  3. Dallas +350
  4. NY Giants +1300

Scott Ratcliffe

Scott Ratcliffe

Scott Ratcliffe has worked as a freelance writer for several publications over the past decade-plus, with a concentration on local and college sports. He is also a writer and editor for his father’s website, JerryRatcliffe.com, dedicated to the coverage of University of Virginia athletics.