It’s not looking like Virginia is going to lose anybody to the portal: Is this a good thing?

If it’s not already obvious, it’s appearing that Virginia is not going to lose anybody who can return in the fall to the transfer portal.

Is that good news?

I don’t want to depress you, so I’ll hedge on that one for now.

I’m the guy who likes to tell you that all is well, remember.

I want to believe that all is well.

All I can come up with now is, a ton of ifs.

The first two big questions

Where we are at this stage is, we’re still uncertain on the status of Reece Beekman and Ryan Dunn, two NBA prospects who have yet to signal their intentions regarding the 2024 draft process, and have until April 27 to do so.

Neither is a sure bet in terms of draft potential; from a look at several mock drafts this afternoon, I see Beekman listed in the late second round in a couple, and Dunn going anywhere from late first round to out of the draft entirely.

Still, if I had to guess, I’d go with Beekman, whose extra year of eligibility is the COVID redshirt year, is going, and Dunn, a sophomore with two years of eligibility, staying.

Now, I can make the case for the folks at Cav Futures coming up with a nice pot of NIL money to try to make sure both are back on Grounds.

The standard G League contract is $40,500 a year, and guys on two-way NBA/G League contracts get $449,155 a year.

Those figures shouldn’t be barriers for a program in the ACC that ranked 14th in the nation in revenues last year.

Frontcourt

So, I’m presuming Virginia gets Dunn back.

Dunn would be the favorite for ACC Defensive Player of the Year in 2025, but he’s a massive liability on offense: he averaged 8.1 points per game in 2023-2024, and after Feb. 1, he put up just 5.2 points per game, on 46.5 percent shooting from the floor, and he was 6-of-16 (37.5 percent) at the free-throw line.

The prescription for Dunn this spring and summer: get in the gym, and shoot – a lot.

The frontcourt loses Jake Groves (7.4 ppg, 2.8 rebs/g, 45.0% FG, 45.9% 3FG) and Jordan Minor (4.3 ppg, 3.1 rebs/g, 47.4% FG), two grad-senior transfers, so in addition to Dunn, it would be rising sophomore Blake Buchanan (3.4 ppg, 3.1 rebs/g, 41.4% FG), redshirt freshman Anthony Robinson and incoming freshman Jacob Cofie at the four and five spots.

Bennett has reportedly reached out to, among others, Syracuse transfer Malik Brown (9.5 ppg, 7.2 rebs/g, 69.8% FG), but as I noted in a column earlier today, Brown is pretty much Ryan Dunn on offense, limited to being able to score at the rim, and is not even close to Dunn on the defensive end.

If it’s me, I’d be on the lookout for another Jake Groves- or Ben Vander Plas-type in the post, more Vander Plas, honestly – a guy who can stretch defenses from the perimeter, but can also defend fives and rebound.

They don’t pay me to make those decisions, so, there’s that.

The backcourt

The backcourt, losing Beekman, will have its biggest question mark at point guard.

For the first time since, damn, I’ll go with since London Perrantes’ freshman year in 2013-2014, Bennett doesn’t have an obvious guy coming back prepped and ready to run the offense.

I think the reason Bennett gave Andrew Rohde (4.3 ppg, 2.7 assists/g, 29.3% FG, 25.7% 3FG) so much run this past season was that he hoped Rohde could slide in to be a Ty Jerome-type big point guard, but for whatever reason, it just didn’t click with Rohde in Year 1.

If you’re like me, you have bad dreams at night about a starting lineup with Rohde and Dante Harris (2.5 ppg, 1.4 assists/g, 28.0% FG, 10.0% 3FG), which, if I had to bet right now, would be what Bennett will go with when the season tips off in November.

Then there’s Elijah Gertrude (3.4 ppg, 36.2% FG, 6.7% 3FG), who has all the potential in the world, but my view on Gertrude is, he’s wasting his potential playing in Bennett’s version of the mover/blocker.

If I’m Gertrude, personally, I transfer out to play for a coach who plays tempo more at the 70 possessions-a-game pace.

The other guy who, if I’m him, I transfer, is Leon Bond (4.1 ppg, 2.8 rebs/g, 45.8% FG), a 6’5” rising redshirt sophomore whose game just doesn’t fit in the mover/blocker.

Bond has no perimeter game (he was 8-of-33, 24.2 percent, on jumpers this past season), and at 6’5”, he’s too small to be an option in the post on either end.

Christian Bliss, a 6’4” four-star who reclassified to be able to redshirt this past season, is the other option at the point, and Bennett always has rising senior Taine Murray (3.3 ppg, 48.2% FG, 45.0% 3FG) to jerk around in terms of his minutes being inconsistent for no good reason.

Me, if I’m Bennett, I have Bliss, Gertrude and Isaac McKneely (12.3 ppg, 3.0 rebs/g, 1.6 assists/g, 40.9% FG, 44.5% 3FG) as my three-man starting backcourt, use Rohde and Harris off the bench, and loosen the reins on the pace a bit.

Where things are headed

TB’s not going to do that, though.

The word I’m getting from the inside is, the thought is that they just need to run the mover/blocker and the middle third/triangle sets better, which, well, yeah – Virginia ranked 194th in offensive efficiency in KenPom in the final pre-tourney numbers for 2023-2024, so, bottom half nationally.

The defense was ninth nationally, and I would expect it to be better next year, with so many guys back with more experience in and more knowledge of the system.

I’d worry about the usual with the defense – the lack of size in the post necessitating post doubles, which lead to open shots on the perimeter.

And then, the usual worry with the offense – nothing from the post guys, no offensive rebounds because of the edict to get back on D, meaning everything comes from the guards, either on dribble-drives or on the perimeter.

The approach works when you have guys like Joe Harris, Malcolm Brogdon, Justin Anderson, Anthony Gill, Ty Jerome, Kyle Guy, De’Andre Hunter, Mamadi Diakite.

Aside from Dunn and possibly Gertrude, I don’t know that there are NBA talents on next year’s projected roster.

The one thing this group would have going for it is continuity, but there are simply too many holes – at the point, in the post, on the perimeter.

There is talent there – I could see Gertrude running the point in a North Carolina-like system and putting up big numbers, and actually, put McKneely beside him in a Cormac Ryan-type role, yeah, wow.

If McKneely can develop a midrange jumper (he was 45.5 percent from three, and 35.1 percent in the midrange, last season), if Dunn can develop any kind of offensive game, if Gertrude can learn how to fit in the mover/blocker, if Bliss can step in right away and contribute, if Rohde gets over whatever it was that had him off this past season, if Buchanan can put on some weight and start scoring in the post, if Robinson can give Bennett 12-15 minutes a night …

That’s a lot of ifs.

That’s the best I’ve got.