It might be time to put a wrap on Bubble Watch, which for Virginia has almost certainly turned into NIT Watch, with the buzzer-beating loss to Florida State on Saturday.
The ‘Hoos (17-12, 11-8 ACC) have the mid-week off, and finish the regular season on Saturday at Louisville (12-16, 6-12 ACC).
The game is a Quad 2 matchup for Virginia, which is 4-1 in Quad 2 games this season, so, nothing to sneeze at, a chance to get to 5-1 there.
UVA is going to be the six or seven seed in the ACC Tournament next week in Brooklyn, which means a game on Wednesday in the second round against somebody from among the teams seeded 10-15.
That group is:
- Clemson (14-15, 6-12 ACC), which split with Virginia in the regular season, winning 67-50 in Charlottesville in December, and losing the game in Littlejohn, 75-65, two weeks later.
- Louisville (12-16, 6-12 ACC), which lost 64-52 at Virginia on Jan. 24, prompting the school to decide to fire coach Chris Mack.
- Boston College (11-17, 6-12 ACC), which lost 67-55 at Virginia on Feb. 1.
- Pitt (11-18, 6-12 ACC), which lost 57-56 at Virginia on Dec. 3, and lost 66-61 at home on Jan. 19.
- NC State (11-18, 4-14 ACC), which pasted Virginia 77-63 on Jan. 22 in Raleigh.
- Georgia Tech (11-18, 4-14 ACC), which lost 63-53 at Virginia on Feb. 12.
Virginia is 6-2 against this group, but of the wins, only the win at home against BC was one you would think of as somewhat easy.
Win on Wednesday, and the ‘Hoos get a rested two or three seed in the quarterfinals on Thursday.
The teams likely to be in those positions:
- Notre Dame (21-8, 14-4 ACC), which defeated UVA 69-65 in South Bend on Jan. 29.
- North Carolina (21-8, 13-5 ACC), which obliterated the Cavaliers 74-58 in Chapel Hill on Jan. 8.
- Miami (20-9, 12-6 ACC), which was swept by Virginia, losing 71-58 in Charlottesville on Feb. 5, and 74-71 at home on Feb. 19.
- Wake Forest (22-8, 12-7 ACC), which won 63-55 at Virginia on Jan. 15.
Assessment
I’d been saying since I first charted out a possible path for Virginia to an at-large tournament bid back in mid-January that Virginia would need 19 regular-season wins and at least one in the ACC Tournament to have a puncher’s chance on Selection Sunday.
With the loss to Florida State, the math has us at a ceiling of 18 regular-season wins, so a win on Wednesday against a lower seed, and then an upset on Thursday against a higher seed, would still fit the profile.
A loss on Friday in the ACC semifinals would leave Virginia at 20-13, most likely a 4-7 record against Quadrant 1, an 8-4 record in their last 12 games – with wins in that stretch against Duke, two against Miami, one in an upset of one of the four with a tournament double-bye.
Stranger things have happened, is all I’m saying.
Flip side is Virginia losing at Louisville, losing on Wednesday in Brooklyn, and not even getting an NIT game.
Truly anything can happen.
Average it all out, and an NIT bid is the most likely scenario.
Virginia profile
(data through Feb. 28)
Record: 17-12 (11-8 ACC)
Last 12: 7-5
SOS/OOC: 54/133
Quad 1: 3-6
Quad 2: 4-1
Quad 3: 3-5
Quad 4: 7-0
Road: 5-6
Neutral: 2-0
Avg. NET win: 156
Avg. NET loss: 75
BPI: 63 (+4)
NET: 81 (+1)
Sagarin: 61 (+4)
KPI: 72 (+7)
SOR: 65 (+3)
KenPom: 78 (+4)
Avg: 70 (+3.8)
Story by Chris Graham
Share
Contributors
