I’m probably the only person who covers UVA basketball on a regular basis who feels this way, but: I’m not sure I’m as high on this team as I thought I’d be.
And as I say this, I recognize that the numbers are suggesting that this UVA team is at least the second-best UVA team of the last six years.
The ‘Hoos are currently ranked second overall in the KenPom.com rankings. Last year’s team, even after the loss to UMBC in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, finished second in the KenPom.com ranking.
The 2014 and 2016 teams each finished fourth, and the 2015 team was sixth.
The 2016 team might have been the best of the bunch: ranking eighth in adjusted offensive efficiency and seventh in adjusted defensive efficiency.
The 2014 team was fourth defensively, but just 27th on offense. The 2015 team was second defensively and 21st offensively.
The 2018 team was first defensively and 30th offensively.
You’re wondering about 2017. I feel you: that team finished 12th overall, and was second defensively, and 50th on offense.
The magic number in the KenPom numbers is 11. Dating back to 2015, the eventual national champ ranked in the top 11 on both offense and defense.
2015: Duke (#3 on offense, #11 on defense)
2016: Villanova (#3 on offense, #5 on defense)
2017: North Carolina (#9 on offense, #11 on defense)
2018: Villanova (#1 on offense, #11 on defense)
The 2018-2019 ‘Hoos, through nine games, are 12th on offense and fourth on defense, so, close, right?
Well, yes.
But, something feels missing to me, and I can name that something.
This team is lacking a dude.
Dude, defined: the guy who takes over when the sh-t is about to come down.
The 2014-2016 teams had as its dude Malcolm Brogdon, who finished second in the 2016 KenPom Player of the Year ratings, and even had as a second dude Anthony Gill, who was seventh in 2015 and 10th in 2016.
Either of those guys would take over a game, Brogdon with a big three or dribble-drive into the lane to get to the line, Gill with a post-up basket or offensive rebound.
This year’s team has three guys who could be dudes: De’Andre Hunter, Ty Jerome and Kyle Guy.
I’m not ready to anoint any of those three guys as a dude quite yet. Hunter seems most ready to assume that mantle, but he has yet to get it done on the court.
Hunter was noticeably missing in action in the win last week over VCU, scoring just nine points and making just one shot from the field.
Jerome, to his credit, stepped up down the stretch in the VCU win, scoring 10 points in the last 6:30 as the ‘Hoos closed out on a 19-6 run.
I’m nitpicking here, of course, but it didn’t feel Brogdon-like to me.
Guy has really yet to do much to show that he can be the dude down the stretch. His last dude moment dates back to the game at VCU last year, when he had 29 points in the Siegel Center in an early-season road win.
Guy has had 20 or more in a game four times since. He never seems to take over in the final 10 minutes.
We all remember UMBC. The lesson there was, you need a guy like a Brogdon who can take the game into his hands when everything is falling apart.
Last year’s team didn’t have that. I’m worried that this year’s team doesn’t have it, either.
It doesn’t have a dude.
We need us a dude.
Column by Chris Graham
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