The UVA baseball team may still very well get an NCAA Tournament bid. If it does, it will be a miracle of smoke-and-mirrors produced by coach Brian O’Connor and his staff.
Let’s be blunt: the 2015 Cavs are not an NCAA Tournament team. The strength of this team, the preseason #1 team in several national polls, was supposed to be pitching. Reality check: Virginia has one decent starting pitcher right now, Connor Jones, now the Friday-night starter with the loss of All-American junior ace Nathan Kirby.
Jones has stepped in nicely to the challenge of being the number-one guy, but his numbers (5-2, 3.31 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) are good, not great.
Kirby (5-2, 2.28 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) wasn’t much like his dominant 2014 version (9-3, 2.08 ERA, 0.89 WHIP), for that matter. Also regressing in 2015 was one-time ace Brandon Waddell (2-4, 4.88 ERA, 1.63 WHIP in 2015; 10-3, 2.45 ERA, 1.03 WHIP in 2014).
The staff across the board has taken a few steps back (3.51 team ERA, 1.37 WHIP in 2015; 2.23 team ERA, 1.03 WHIP in 2014).
Walks have been a concern (208 BB in 435.1 IP in 2015, 200 BB in 626 IP in 2014), perhaps a function of a big step back in the play of the other eight guys (59 errors, .969 team fielding percentage through 48 games in 2015, versus 51 errors and a .981 team fielding percentage in 69 games in 2014).
Defense, like pitching, has been a bulwark of the Virginia program under O’Connor, but UVA was not able to get its preseason starting lineup on the field for a single game, with All-ACC outfielder Joe McCarthy missing a big chunk of the season recovering from back surgery, third baseman John La Prise playing just four games before going down with a hip injury, and catcher Robbie Coman having to DH and play first for a long stretch due to knee issues, among the issues.
The slew of injuries caused obvious issues with defensive continuity, which in turn affected the pitchers, with human nature pushing them to try to strike more guys out (8.6 K/9IP in 2015, 8.1 K/9IP in 2014) with the defense not being what it was last year behind them, leading to more walks, more guys on base, ultimately more runs for the bad guys.
The lack of continuity with the everyday lineup also manifest itself on offense, which has seen a decline in production in an otherwise offense-friendly environment in 2015. The 2015 Cavs are scoring 5.3 runs per game with a .272/.359/.379 slash line, after the 2014 Cavs scored 5.5 runs per game with a .280/.375/.377 slash line.
Bottom line tells you all you need to know. The 2015 Cavs have outscored opponents 256-199; the 2014 group outscored its opponents 378-186.
That last line is one of a team that should be playing for a national championship. The first one is a team that is likely to be sending its players to summer ball a lot earlier than anybody would have ever figured.
– Column by Chris Graham
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