I can hardly make it a day without somebody asking me a variation of that question.
It’s known on both sides of the political fence that soon-to-be-former Republican State Del. Chris Saxman and I are bipartisan birds of a feather, in a manner of speaking.
“So surely, Chris, you’d know, if anybody would, what Chris is up to?”
Well, yeah, I do, and it’s not what everybody assumes.
More on what I know later.
First, to what everybody assumes. I remember back at the Augusta County Fair several weeks ago when our AFP booth was a popular stopping point for local pols who wanted to share with me their theories about what Chris has in store next.
The most popular one there at the fair and since has Saxman angling for Sixth District Congressman Bob Goodlatte’s seat in 2010. The way that story has gone, Goodlatte is considering retirement after his current term comes to an end, and has tapped Saxman as his heir apparent.
I don’t doubt Saxman as a logical successor to Goodlatte if and when Goodlatte ever decides to retire from Congress. I just don’t know that it’s going to be an anytime-soon kind of thing. Goodlatte turned 57 on Sept. 22, and would seem to have a good eight to ten years left in his congressional career before he’d ride off into the political sunset.
The only thing I could think about an early retirement for Goodlatte would be the golden parachutes that usually accompany federal legislators into retirement in the form of lobbying jobs on Capitol Hill that are far, far more lucrative than congressional pay.
In that context, if I’m Goodlatte, I’m making sure to have a succession plan in place so that my seat isn’t put too much up for grabs in my wake, so to speak. And if I’m Goodlatte, and I’m looking around at what might be the surest bet, it’s almost certainly Saxman.
The thing that I think derails this storyline is the timing. Saxman was actively running for re-election in the 20th District up until a few days before the mid-July announcement that he was withdrawing from the race. What about mid-July makes sense as far as Bob Goodlatte tapping Chris Saxman on the shoulder and saying, Get ready to run for my seat next year, because I’m retiring?
Running a close second in the Saxman speculation is that the idea that Chris has been told by the Bob McDonnell team that he will be nominated for a Cabinet post in Richmond – the most logical place being Secretary of Education, given Saxman’s focus in the state legislature on school choice. Which assumes, of course, that McDonnell wins in November, and he’s at the moment relatively comfortably ahead of Democrat Creigh Deeds in the polls. And assumes that Saxman might have some reason even beyond being able to advocate for school choice at a Cabinet-level perch to give up his life in the Valley to move to Richmond to be able to run a state bureaucracy for the next four years.
That would be a run at the U.S. Senate in 2012, when Democrat Jim Webb will be up for his first re-election, and state Republicans will be sure to want to put up a strong candidate to put Webb on the spot considering his narrow ’06 victory over George Allen and his low profile statewide since taking the oath of office.
Saxman, you might remember, made a brief but public exploration toward a run at the ’08 GOP Senate nomination before deciding to hold off on making a run against former Gov. Mark Warner. I never thought Saxman was actually going to go through with a run at Warner, who ended up beating another former governor, Jim Gilmore, with more than 60 percent of the votes going for Warner, but that he was, well, laying down some foundation for the future.
In that context, if you’re Chris Saxman, and you’re trying to position yourself for a U.S. Senate campaign, you’re not likely to be viewed as the most viable Republican option being a member of the House of Delegates from Staunton. But if you’re the former Secretary of Education and a former state legislator, well, there’s some cachet there.
This one makes some sense to me, and if I didn’t know what it was that Saxman is telling me he’s really up to, I’d say this story makes as much sense as anything else.
Regarding the what-Chris-is-really-up-to matter, that’s going to be something that Saxman is going to be going public with in the next few weeks, from what he’s telling me. It involves politics, not a run for office, not a promised role in a gubernatorial administration, but politics nonetheless.
He’s shared with me some of the bare details, and I’ll say it’s something that won’t necessarily surprise folks when it does become public.
I can also say that even when what Chris has coming up next becomes public knowledge, it won’t stop the speculation about his sudden about-face this summer.
It doesn’t make sense, people say, that this guy with this bright political future really did just get burned out and that he just wants to spend time with his kids at the risk of a career path that had him running for governor or the U.S. Senate down the road.
But knowing him as I do, I think that’s exactly what happened.
– Column by Chris Graham
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