Louisville, 3-22 this season, is, weird as it is to say this, playing its best basketball of the season right now.
Yes, it’s relative. The Cardinals only lost 93-85 on Saturday at #13 Miami, trailing by one at halftime and hanging tight from there.
That was after a 91-57 blowout loss at Pitt, which is tied with Virginia atop the ACC standings, but Louisville’s last two games at home included the team’s only ACC win to this point, a 68-58 victory over equally hopeless Georgia Tech on Feb. 1, and a near-miss 81-78 loss to FSU on Feb. 4.
So, Louisville is 3-22, and a 16-point home ‘dog, per KenPom.com, heading into Wednesday night (7 p.m. ET, ESPNU).
But if it can be said that Virginia is getting a 3-21 team that’s been playing well of late, well, there, I tried.
Key players
- 6’3” senior guard El Ellis: 17.4 ppg, 4.8 assists/g, 40.3% FG, 31.7% 3FG, 5.1 free-throw attempts/g (80.3% FT)
- 6’9” junior forward Jae’Lyn Withers: 9.6 ppg, 5.0 rebounds/g, 44.8% FG, 46.3% 3FG
- 6’5” freshman guard Mike James: 9.3 ppg, 44.3% FG, 37.2% 3FG
- 6’8” freshman Kamari Lands: 6.2 ppg, 32.4% FG, 31.9% 3FG
- 6’8” junior forward JJ Traynor: 5.6 ppg, 44.7% FG, 25.5% 3FG
- 6’8” senior Sydney Curry: 5.5 ppg, 4.8 rebounds/g, 54.5% FG
How Louisville got to 3-22
The season started with three straight one-point losses at home – to Bellarmine, Wright State and Appalachian State.
Frustrating, no doubt, but nothing sinful and of itself.
Well, except that Bellarmine is currently 12-15 and .500 in the ASUN, Wright State is 16-11 and 179th in KenPom, and App State is 14-13, .500 in the Sun Belt and 189th in KenPom.
UofL didn’t get a win until Dec. 14, and its second win, three days later, over Florida A&M, was a six-point victory over a team ranked 359th in KenPom.
(There are 363 teams in D1.)
Looking for something positive here: in ACC play, they’ve been something of a tough(er) out at home.
The Cards are 1-6 in ACC games at the Yum! Center this season, with an average scoring margin of -10.1 points.
After the season is over, first-year coach Kenny Payne should petition the NCAA to saddle this season’s won-loss record on his predecessor, Chris Mack, who was let go last January in the midst of the 3-15 stretch that closed out the 2021-2022 season.
Projections
- ESPN BPI: Virginia +20.0, 96.8% win probability
- EvanMiya: Virginia 74-57, 95.6% win probability
- BartTorvik: Virginia 72-57, 94% win probability
- KenPom: Virginia 74-58, 93% win probability
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Chris Graham
