It seemed to me, watching Tony Muskett get sacked six times in the 29-26 loss to Miami last week, that Muskett, at times, was running himself into pressure, almost creating pressure – and ultimately, sacks – of his own making.
This, again, to me, has been an issue for Muskett all season long, odd as it may be – considering that it’s not as if Muskett is a statue back there.
Indeed, Muskett has become a weapon of late in the run game with offensive coordinator Des Kitchings using his above-average straight-line running on draws.
So, what gives?
The mind’s eye tells me that Muskett has been under pressure more than Virginia’s other contributor this season at QB, true freshman Anthony Colandrea, who started three games that Muskett had to miss to injury.
Am I on to something here?
Let’s look at the numbers.
In those three starts, and mop-up duty in the 49-13 loss in Week 1 to Tennessee, the game that Muskett had to leave in the fourth quarter with an injured left shoulder, Colandrea was pressured on 31.5 percent of his 124 pass dropbacks.
Muskett, in his five starts, has been pressured on 38.5 percent of his 179 pass dropbacks.
The numbers are from Pro Football Focus, which tells us that Muskett has been sacked 19 times on his 69 dropbacks under pressure, a pressure-to-sack rate of 27.5 percent; and that Colandrea has been sacked on nine of his 39 dropbacks under pressure, a P2S rate of 23.1 percent.
So, there is a small difference there, 4.4 percent, showing that Muskett is slightly more prone to being sacked compared to Colandrea, given similar circumstances.
This, itself, though, doesn’t tell us why Muskett is under pressure more often – 7 percent more often – than Colandrea.
They both play behind the same offensive line, so it would seem to stand to reason, right, that their pressure rates wouldn’t diverge by that much, 7 percent.
The next stat that I came upon isn’t proof of anything, but could be telling.
PFF breaks down pass dropbacks under pressure into two categories – “when blitzed” and “not blitzed.”
“When blitzed” would refer to the defense sending five or more rushers at the QB; “not blitzed” would be the defense sending three or four rushers, depending on the particular D’s base package.
The numbers: Muskett has been blitzed on 30.2 percent of his dropbacks; Colandrea, on 42.7 percent of his dropbacks.
Which is saying, Colandrea has been blitzed on 12 percent more of his pass dropbacks than Muskett, but Muskett was considered to be under pressure on 7 percent of his dropbacks overall.
Defensive coordinators would be expected to send extra guys at a true freshman, so those numbers aren’t a surprise.
Looking at the numbers for the two when they’re not being blitzed gives us another clue as to what is going on with Muskett seeming to create pressure when the D isn’t doing anything special to create it.
Colandrea, when not blitzed, has been sacked three times and was considered under pressure a total of 17 times on 71 pass dropbacks.
The sack percentage on those dropbacks: 4.2 percent.
The pressure percentage: 23.9 percent.
Muskett, when not blitzed, has been sacked 11 times and was considered under pressure on 41 times on 125 pass dropbacks.
The sack percentage: 8.8 percent.
The pressure percentage: 32.8 percent.
Muskett is 8.9 percent more likely to face pressure against a three- or four-man rush, and twice as likely to be sacked in those situations.
Again, Muskett and Colandrea play behind the same O line.
If anything, the line that Muskett has been playing behind the past three weeks is as good as it has been all season, if just judging from the recent spike in productivity of the UVA ground attack, which put up 200 yards-plus in the wins over William & Mary and North Carolina, and 138 yards against the ACC’s best rush defense, Miami, in the loss last week.
Even with Virginia putting up good numbers on the ground against Miami last week, Muskett found himself sacked six times, three of those sacks coming on snaps on which he wasn’t facing a blitz.
It’s just something for Muskett to work on – keeping his eyes downfield against pressure, getting rid of the ball a little quicker.
It’ll come.
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Chris Graham
