Former President Donald Trump’s criminal trial is under way in New York with jury selection complete, and today, opening statements were made and the first witness, David Pecker, the ex-publisher of the National Enquirer, took the stand.
Trump is the first former president and first presumptive party nominee for president facing criminal charges that led to a trial.
Two Virginia Tech experts weighed in on what the trial potentially means for Trump and other down-ticket races this fall.
Political science expert Karen Hult said this case could mobilize some voters.
“The trial continues the ongoing Trump public ‘spectacle,’ complete with social media postings, candidate press conferences, and campaign rallies,” said Hult. “The impact on possible voters in the November general election is harder to gauge.”
“For many Trump supporters, there likely are mobilization effects; for some other, less intense supporters, de-mobilization or disaffection are possible. For those who are independent or undecided or who do not pay much attention to politics, the trial may be enlightening for some, alienating for others, or marginally entertaining.”
Republicans, Hult said, might have a reason for concern.
“At this stage, I would expect any effects would be marginal at best for the presidential race — though in a close race in ‘swing’ states, a few votes can make a difference. Candidates for ‘down-ticket’ races, including U.S. Senate and House, governorships, and state legislatures – perhaps especially Republicans — might have more reason for concern,” Hult said.
While most candidates would suffer from the negative publicity surrounding a criminal trial, public relations and communications expert Cayce Myers said Trump turns these adversities into rallying points for his base.
“The trial in New York generates constant news coverage of Donald Trump, something he already experienced. However, this coverage predominantly portrays him in the context of his legal issues,” said Myers. “The trial in many ways strengthens Trump’s campaign narrative that he is a victim, unfairly targeted by a corrupt establishment.
“While most candidates would suffer from the negative publicity of a criminal trial, Trump turns these adversities into rallying points for his base,” Myers said.
The biggest challenge for Trump, he said, is that the former president may have to rely on surrogates to campaign for him while he spends his days in the courtroom.
“The trial in New York generates constant news coverage of Trump, predominantly portraying him in the context of his legal issues. The trial in many ways strengthens Trump’s campaign narrative that he is a victim, unfairly targeted by a corrupt establishment.
“The primary drawback for Trump is that it restricts his ability to campaign nationally, particularly at his rallies. This lack of presence will likely mean Trump will need to campaign more than normal through surrogates, who lack his power and charisma.”
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Crystal Graham
