It’s getting close to kill switch time with Andrew Rohde, the transfer from St. Thomas who is not even giving Virginia coach Tony Bennett replacement player-level contributions despite getting significant playing time.
Rohde, a 17.1-point-per-game scorer as a freshman at St. Thomas, where he was the Summit League Freshman of the Year in 2022-2023, is just not cutting it as a starting guard in the ACC.
The 6’6” sophomore is getting 29.1 minutes per game, third on the team, behind double-digit scorers Reece Beekman and Isaac McKneely, but Rohde is averaging just 5.4 points per game, on 32.5 percent shooting from the floor and 26.2 percent shooting from three.
The one redeeming quality to his game that we’ve seen: he’s averaging 3.1 assists, vs. 1.1 turnovers.
So, positive there, he takes care of the ball, but otherwise is limited offensively, and on the defensive end, eh, not getting the job done there the way he needs to.
Per data from Synergy Sports, Rohde has given up double-digits on defense in three of his last six games, for an average of 9.7 points per game, on 22-of-52 (42.3) percent shooting from the floor overall, and 63.6 percent (14-of-22) shooting on mid-range jumpers and shots at the rim.
Over that same stretch, Rohde, on the offensive end, is averaging 4.3 points and 2.3 assists, on 11-of-40 (27.5 percent) shooting from the floor overall, and 4-of-22 (18.2 percent) shooting from three.
This isn’t the 2021-2022 team that had Bennett needing to go with often-overmatched Kody Stattmann for 15.8 minutes per game because there was literally no one else – Stattmann’s minutes ranked seventh on the roster that year because of the limited bench options.
Bennett has 11 guys averaging double-digits in minutes this year, including the electric combo guard Elijah Gertrude, who had his redshirt burned back in November, got double-digit minutes in Virginia’s six games in December, averaging 6.3 points on 48.4 percent shooting, then was disappeared again.
Since the start of the calendar year, Gertrude has gotten a total of 17 minutes, almost all in garbage time, and he hasn’t seen the floor in the past two games.
Georgetown transfer Dante Harris will almost certainly see his minutes increase as he continues to get his legs under him after missing six weeks with a high ankle sprain; in 14.0 minutes per game since his return earlier this week, Harris is averaging 4.5 points and 2.5 assists, on 4-of-11 (36.3 percent) shooting.
The other option for Bennett to use in the backcourt with Beekman and McKneely is 6’5” junior Taine Murray, who goes through stretches where he gets good minutes (15.5 minutes per game over a six-game stretch from Dec. 19-Jan. 13), then not (three minutes each in the past two).
A sports media friend challenged me to find the equivalent of a Pro Football Focus grade to be able to measure, with dispassion, pure analytics, how all of this should be broken out.
The best measure that I found this afternoon working on this piece box plus-minus, which estimates a basketball player’s contribution to the team when that player is on the court.
The average is set at 0.0, so think, baseball, and wins above replacement, where a 0.0 WAR is considered a replacement-level player.
Per stats from data cruncher Bart Torvik, Beekman’s BPM is 10.5, which ranks 18th in the nation, i.e. not bad.
Ryan Dunn’s 8.9 BPM ranks 48th nationally; still not bad.
Rohde’s box plus-minus: -3.1.
Again, the replacement-level player is at 0.0.
Now, Murray is at -0.9, Gertrude at -2.4, and Harris at -3.3, so it’s not like BPM gives us an obvious answer as to how Bennett should distribute the minutes at the third guard spot.
But it’s also true that the numbers don’t make a clear case for Rohde to just automatically get 29.1 minutes per game at the expense of what we’ve seen out of him in his extended run.
And numbers aside, there’s the eye test. Rohde seems to have trouble staying in front of straight-line dribble-drives on defense, and on offense, he’s rarely in catch-and-shoot or catch-and-pocket-pass position when he runs off the endless screens in Bennett’s sides offense.
It feels like Bennett is playing with one hand tied behind his back with Rohde on the floor, and he has options – good options – so that he doesn’t have to be.
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Chris Graham
