The expansion of the ACC was orchestrated to launch the conference into superleague status. The additions of Virginia Tech, Miami and Boston College in 2004-2005 and Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville and Notre Dame in 2013-2014 were done to crush what was left of the Big East and go head-to-head with the SEC.
The early returns were promising, with the conference producing national champions in 2015, 2017, and the most recent, Virginia’s national title in 2019. In 2018 the conference placed nine teams in the Big Dance.
Remember when ACC basketball had no peers?
Not so much now. Looking ahead to Selection Sunday, a much different conference is clearly on display. Duke is a national title contender, in Mike Krzyzewski’s 41st and final season on the bench. But beyond the Blue Devils, the league isn’t getting a lot of love from the so-called bracket exports.
Of the conference teams that have reasonable tournament hopes, only Duke and Wake Forest are single-digit seeds. Notre Dame, Miami and North Carolina, if selected, look more like mid-major entries.
At times this season the ACC has looked and played more like a mid-major conference than a Power 5. A bunch of teams playing with parity, but not quality.
A conference that just three years ago produced three No. 1 seeds; Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia.
So, what’s the problem?
For one, the coaching bluebloods are getting old. North Carolina’s Roy Williams retired after last season with two national championships. Mike Krzyzewski is riding off into the sunset after this season with five titles. Soon to follow, Syracuse’s Jim Boeheim (77 years old), Florida State’s Leonard Hamilton (73) and the spring-chicken of the group, Miami’s Jim Larrinaga, at a mere 72.
A few coaches in the conference are certainly on the hot seat as well. Pittsburg’s Jeff Capel and Georgia Tech’s Josh Pastner may be seeking employment elsewhere at the conclusion of this season.
Louisville, one of the marquee schools in college basketball, has been an eyesore to the conference in many ways since moving over from the Big East, as NCAA violations, criminal investigations, coaching scandals, and a wave of coaching changes have paraded through the KFC Yum! Center. The Cardinals, who recently told coach Chris Mack to pack, have cycled through three coaches since Rick Pitino was asked to leave after the 2017 season.
Notre Dame coach Mike Brey admits that the ACC has taken a hit. “I know we’ve gotten a little bit of a knock,” said Brey. “Really, a one-bid league this year? Am I back in the America East?” Brey was the head coach at Delaware to begin his coaching career.
The best conferences seem to be full of prime-time, young coaches who are being paid lucratively. In the glory days, those coaches would simply be serving an apprenticeship before moving to the ACC. Not so now. In the ultra-rich, football crazy SEC, basketball isn’t just something to do while waiting for spring football.
Auburn’s Bruce Pearl’s new contract is valued at $5.4 million annually and runs through 2030. The Tigers, fearing that Louisville might make a run at Pearl, reacted swiftly to eliminate that from happening.
Bigger didn’t mean better
Adding the bookends to the conference in Miami and Boston College didn’t move the television ratings needle. The conference felt that the big TV markets would be a boom. One would think that the suits in the ACC headquarters in Greensboro would have done a bit more research before extending offers to Miami and especially to BC.
Miami was a no-brainer, seemingly. The conference was looking to raise the bar in football to complement Florida State. The problem is Miami has been a shell of the program that had five Associated Press national championships when entering the ACC in 2004.
Boston College had little tradition in either football or basketball. What BC did have was the coveted Boston and New England television market. Except, they didn’t. Boston College and college sports collectively has very little impact in the Greater Boston area. The Eagles get sparce coverage in either of the two Boston newspapers, the Boston Globe or Boston Herald. Boston is a professional sports town, period.
The ACC recruiting pipeline is clogged
Duke and North Carolina will probably always be among the elite. They have the history, the resources and the infrastructure in place. Virginia, under Tony Bennett, has certainly closed the gap with the Blue Devils and Tar Heels. The problem is the rest of the conference needs to catch up as well.
Saturday on ESPN’s “Game Day,” analyst Seth Greenberg said this about ACC basketball: “In the last few years, the ACC has been rated as the fourth-, fifth-, and this season the sixth-best conference. How can this happen?” Answering his own question, Greenberg replied, “recruiting, name image and likeness and the transfer portal, the trifecta for success.”
“Over the last six years, the SEC has had twice as many top-50 recruits as the ACC. The SEC and Big 12 have managed the transfer portal better,” said Greenberg.
Hard to argue the recruiting decline. Virginia, despite winning the national championship in 2019, got little if any recruiting bump from its hardware.
As far as NIL, its simply boils down to the ACC arriving to the party late. As Greenberg aptly said, “The SEC has had the NIL for years, its simply legal now.” Being behind the NIL curve puts the ACC at a significant disadvantage in winning recruiting battles.
What’s the future of the ACC?
The ACC is clearly at a crossroads. The pendulum always swings with major college basketball. Duke and UNC will continue to be the blue bloods they have been for over a half-century. Virginia, under Bennett, has arrived as the conference’s third blue blood program. Louisville will eventually spend its way back to the national spotlight.
As much as the rest of the ACC fan bases revel in watching Duke and North Carolina struggle, the conference needs both programs to be the flag-bearers. Much like Major League Baseball needs the New York Yankees to be highly successful and strong, Duke, North Carolina and yes, now Virginia, need to be great, not just good. If not, the ACC dominance in basketball may continue to decline.
And as much as it pains me to say this, Go Duke, Go UNC. The ACC needs you.
Story by Scott German
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