Analysis by Chris Graham
Battleground Virginia continues to tighten – and a new poll has Barack Obama with a four-point lead over John McCain.
A SurveyUSA poll released yesterday had Obama ahead of McCain in Virginia by a 50 percent-to-46 percent margin. A week ago, SurveyUSA had McCain ahead of Obama by a 49 percent-to-47 percent gap.
A Rasmussen Reports poll released today had Obama and McCain tied at 48 percent each. A week ago, McCain had a 49 percent-to-47 percent lead over Obama in Virginia in the Rasmussen data.
The Rasmussen numbers had favorabilty ratings basically even for the two – with McCain at 56 percent favorable and 42 percent unfavorable, and Obama at 55 percent favorable and 43 percent unfavorable. McCain has a slight lead among independent voters – 46 percent to 43 percent. Last week, McCain led among this demographic by a 50 percent-to-39 percent margin.
Interesting from the new SurveyUSA numbers – last week’s data had McCain ahead of Obama in the Shenandoah Valley by a 60 percent-to-36 percent gulf. This week’s polling has it much closer, at 53 percent for McCain to 44 percent for Obama.
Obama leads in the other three regions of the state in the SurveyUSA data.