Second-ranked UVA didn’t need Justin Anderson down the stretch to clinch the program’s second consecutive ACC regular-season title.
It’s hard to imagine, though, that the Cavs can win a national title without the 6’6” do-everything junior.
Which is what makes his expected return on Saturday at Louisville far short of the no-brainer than it seems to be.
Anderson went down with a broken pinky finger on his left (shooting) hand in Virginia’s 52-47 win over Louisville on Feb. 7. For a couple of days, it seemed that the finger injury would spell doom for the Cavs’ postseason hopes, with the word at the outset that he could be out anywhere from four to six weeks.
It turns out that Saturday is the four-week mark, which was the best-case scenario. The worst case would have had Anderson back around the start of the NCAA Tournament, an awkward time to be trying to reintegrate a key player into the rotation, there being no margin for error when one loss means the end of the season.
Virginia still has a little something on the line on Saturday, in the form of the team’s continued bid for a #1 seed in the NCAAs, which probably can sustain at least one loss between the coming weekend and next week’s ACC Tournament, and maybe even two.
More important than seeding is getting the chemistry back to where it was before Anderson went down, and what’s interesting there is that the team went on and finished off the first Louisville game and then went 7-0 thereafter with Anderson on the bench, the last five wins by double-digits.
Which is to say, this is a team that is hitting on, if not all cylinders, then seven of the eight.
You of course welcome a talent like Anderson – the team’s second-leading scorer, at 13.4 points per game, and the ACC’s best three-point shooter, hitting 48.4 percent of his tries from the bonusphere – back into the fold with open arms.
But you do so recognizing a few things. One, he’s going to be rusty, on both ends of the floor. Don’t be surprised to see Anderson get limited minutes, maybe 18 to 20, on Saturday against the Cardinals, as much care and attention being paid to his legs as to his pinky.
Two, his teammates are going to need to recalibrate their approach to reintegrate Anderson’s contributions. That will be easiest on defense, where Anderson is an elite on-ball and help defender, but on offense, Anderson averages 9.2 field-goal attempts per game, second on the team, and more than double what his replacement in the starting lineup, Evan Nolte, has put up in Anderson’s absence (Nolte is averaging 4.1 shot attempts over the last eight games).
Anderson, of course, is a much more efficient presence on offense, hitting 48.4 percent of his three-point attempts (Nolte is hitting 33.3 percent of his shots from three in the past eight games), and unlike Nolte is able to create off the dribble both for himself and his teammates.
Anderson averages 3.0 free-throw attempts per game and 2.0 assists per game; Nolte has attempted four free throws in the past eight games, and has six assists.
But that’s the full-strength Anderson, and he won’t be at full strength first game out on Saturday at Louisville. If the Cavs can win a game or two in Greensboro, you’ll see Anderson get a little more in terms of legs under him each time out, and that will be the most important thing about the next week, even more than whatever number of wins UVA is able to pile up between now and Selection Sunday.
A #1 seed would be a nice feather in the cap for this group, but as Virginia learned last year, a #1 seed isn’t the end goal. The end goal is playing for a national title, and UVA needs a healthy, productive Justin Anderson to be able to insert itself into that mix.
The doctor says he’s healthy. It’s up to UVA coach Tony Bennett and his staff to get Anderson into being productive again, and it looks like that part of the convalescence begins on Saturday in Louisville, Kent.
– Column by Chris Graham
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