Race narrowing at top, but Obama surging in key states

Analysis by Chris Graham
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Once again, the macro numbers have it looking like the race between Barack Obama and John McCain is tightening up, while the micro numbers have it looking like the numbers are working toward a solid Obama margin.

The latest Gallup daily tracking numbers have Obama with a 46-43 lead over McCain, a similar margin to the Rasmussen Reports daily track that has Obama ahead by a 48-45 margin. Individual state numbers from Rasmussen and from Zogby, though, have Obama surging ahead in some key swing states.

Zogby has Obama ahead in Pennsylvania, for instance, by a comfortable 10-point, 46-36 margin right now, and Zogby also has Obama ahead of McCain by double digits in Michigan, by a sizable 47-33 gap. Both Pennsyvlania and Michigan are considered blue states because they have gone Democratic in recent presidential-election cycles, but both had also been considered possible points of vulnerability for Obama because of his relatively poor showings in each of the state’s presidential primaries.

The good news for McCain – according to Rasmussen, he holds a five-point working margin in Missouri, a Midwestern state that he has to win, and he is gaining ground in New Jersey, usually a reliable blue state where Obama currently holds a similar five-point lead.