NC State led once, when DJ Burns finished a nice up-and-under with less than a second on the clock, in the Pack’s 54-52 win over Notre Dame on Wednesday.
The Irish, fresh off the 76-54 evisceration of Virginia, led by as many as 12 in the first half, and seemed to be in control, until they weren’t.
The W gave State (10-3, 2-0 ACC) its second road win in ACC play (the other: Boston College, 84-78 in OT, on Dec. 2).
State is unbeaten at home this season, but also hasn’t played anybody ranked higher than 200 in KenPom in Raleigh to this point in the 2023-2024 campaign.
Virginia (11-3, 1-1 ACC), for its part in this, hasn’t won a true road game yet. The Cavaliers’ 0-2 mark on opponents’ home courts includes that 22-point loss at Notre Dame, and a 23-point loss at Memphis.
NC State rotation
Kevin Keatts will use up to 10 guys, with the bulk of the minutes going to a tighter seven-man rotation.
Four Pack players average in double-digits, led by 6’2” senior guard DJ Horne (14.5 ppg, 42.4% FG, 44.0% 3FG), a fifth-year player who transferred in from Arizona State, where he averaged 12.5 points per game in his two seasons there.
My favorite player on this roster is Burns (13.2 ppg, 4.9 rebs/g, 53.1% FG), a 6’9”, 275-pound senior with deft touch and great footwork in the post.
6’4” junior Jayden Taylor (12.9 ppg, 40.2% FG, 35.6% 3FG) is a Butler transfer who averaged 12.9 points a game in the Big East last season, so he’s the real deal.
The other double-digit guy is familiar – 6’4” grad senior Casey Morsell (11.8 ppg, 43.8% FG, 34.6% 3FG), who was once the centerpiece of a Tony Bennett recruiting class at Virginia.
What to watch for
Keatts wants to play faster (69.7 possessions per game, 77.8 points per game), but as the gritty win in South Bend illustrates, his team can win rock fights, too.
State is decent from three (34.0 percent, 166th nationally), so Virginia will have to be precise in its closeouts on the perimeter, certainly better than it was in that ugly loss at Notre Dame last weekend.
Burns will be a tough matchup in the post for the guy that Bennett has been starting at the five spot, Jake Groves, a painfully thin (6’9”, 211) perimeter threat who has been deputized to play center.
Expect to see Bennett give more minutes to 6’11”, 225-pound freshman Blake Buchanan, as TB did in Wednesday’s 77-53 win over Louisville, when Buchanan, who had been averaging 9.3 minutes per game over the preceding three games, got 19 minutes off the bench, and was effective (six points, five rebounds, one block).
The Burns matchup worries me. Oddly, he doesn’t seem to draw many fouls (he averages just 2.2 free-throw attempts per game), but if Virginia does get into foul trouble in the post, there are literally no other options for Bennett after Groves and Buchanan, other than having reed-thin Ryan Dunn (6’8”, 216, allegedly) try to body up the big guy.
Burns starts in what is basically a four-guard lineup, but Keatts can go big with a pair of 6’10” juniors off the bench, Ben Middlebrooks (5.4 ppg, 3.8 rebs/g, 13.9 minutes/g) and Mohamed Diarra (4.1 ppg, 5.3 rebs/g, 13.2 minutes/g).
Buchanan will be an important counter for Bennett when Keatts tries to go big.
I like the rest of the matchups for Virginia.
The focus in the backcourt will be Reece Beekman on Horne, a point guard who doesn’t seem to penetrate much (53.2% of his shot attempts are threes, and he averages just 2.6 assists per game), and then Isaac McKneely on Morsell, who is adept, at a physical 6’3”, 200, at creating shots in the mid-range and at the rim (shooting 50.0% on his two-point attempts this season).
How this one plays out
The key will be the opening five minutes.
Virginia avoided the slow start in the win over Louisville on Wednesday, but in the losses at Memphis (13-1 lead in the opening four minutes) and Notre Dame (13-0 lead in the opening four minutes), well, the early deficits I spelled out there tell the story.
Dig that kind of hole against this State team, and it’s going to be another smackdown on the road.
I want to think that this young Virginia team has learned its lesson there, but we’re going to need to see some proof.
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Chris Graham
