Preview: Virginia gets another go at NC State, which dominated the first matchup

Virginia has been unbeatable at home, winning 20 straight in JPJ, the longest winning streak in the nation, but the ‘Hoos have been vulnerable on the road, to the point of just getting their first true road win of the season over the weekend at Georgia Tech.

NC State (13-5, 5-2 ACC) was one of the four that put a hurtin’ on Virginia, winning 76-60 on Jan. 6, and let’s be clear, the game wasn’t that close.

The Pack, at one point, made 20 of their 30 shots from the field, over a 19-minute stretch.

It was so bad that garbage time extended to the under-8 media timeout, which worked out for UVA (13-5, 4-3 ACC), in the long run.

Tony Bennett, during that media timeout, subbed in Jordan Minor, who to that point had played a total of 31 minutes in seven games against Power 5 opponents, his longest stint coming in another blowout loss, at Notre Dame on Dec. 30.

Minor, in the loss at State, was effective in the garbage-time minutes, scoring six points and pulling down three rebounds, earning himself the start at Wake Forest a week later.

Now entrenched as the starter at the five spot, Minor has averaged 12.0 points and 4.0 rebounds in 24.0 minutes per game in that role, and beyond the counting numbers, he has given Virginia a toughness in the paint, on both ends, that had been lacking.

So, it will be a different team, in two ways, that will face NC State on Wednesday night: in that Virginia is playing at home, where it’s been unbeatable, and it’s got a guy in Jordan Minor who can score in the post and won’t need help from double teams to defend.

The matchup

The Pack runs its offense through 6’9”, 275-pound-ish center DJ Burns (12.2 ppg, 4.3 rebounds/g, 2.8 assists/g, 52.7% FG), a gifted passer and post scorer, for the 26.2 minutes per game that he’s on the floor.

State coach Kevin Keatts uses Burns wide off the blocks in four-out, one-in sets with shooters spaced around him that make it hard to effectively double the ball out of his hands, and gives him space to either create for teammates when the double comes or for himself by backing his man into the post in one-on-ones.

Bennett tried to counter Burns in the first game with 6’11”, 225-pound freshman Blake Buchanan (3.8 ppg, 3.1 rebounds/g, 14.7 minutes/g), but Buchanan needed help from double-teams, and Burns was able to spin the ball out to teammates for open shots – finishing with four assists, and a few additional unofficial hockey assists.

I would expect Bennett to try to use Minor in single coverage to try to limit the open looks that came out of the doubles.

Burns’ backup, Ben Middlebrooks (5.7 ppg, 4.0 rebounds/g, 14.3 minutes/g) also ate Virginia up, more traditionally – Middlebrooks had eight points on 4-of-4 shooting and six rebounds in the Jan. 3 game.

Buchanan and Virginia’s other big, 6’9” stretch-four Jake Groves (7.1 ppg, 2.6 rebounds/g, 46.5% FG, 42.9% 3FG), will need to man up when their number is called off the bench.

The focus on the perimeter will be on closeouts on DJ Horne (15.1 ppg, 42.6% FG, 42.5% 3FG), Jayden Taylor (12.2 ppg, 39.1% FG, 31.6% 3FG), Casey Morsell (11.7 ppg, 42.0% FG, 30.4% 3FG) and Dennis Parker (6.6 ppg, 48.4% FG, 34.4% 3FG).

In the Jan. 3 win, Horne, Taylor and Parker were a combined 7-of-17 (41.2 percent) from three, which, if you can get that kind of shooting at that level of volume, that’s going to put you in a good position.

What I also liked from State’s perspective was their ball pressure on the defensive end.

Their KenPom number (1.011 points per possession allowed, 61st in the nation) wouldn’t suggest that defense is necessarily a strong suit, but it seemed like the Pack was pushing Virginia well out beyond the three-point line to initiate offense, and that State defenders were effective at fighting through screens and overplaying passing lanes.

Bennett will want better spacing on the offensive end to create opportunities for Reece Beekman (13.2 ppg, 6.1 assists/g, 46.2% FG, 31.5% 3FG) to touch the paint, and for Isaac McKneely (11.9 ppg, 42.5% FG, 48.9% 3FG) to get open looks on the perimeter.

Both actually had nice offensive games in the loss at State – Beekman with 12 points and 10 assists, and McKneely with 18 points on 6-of-13 shooting, 4-of-7 from three.

Ryan Dunn (9.5 ppg, 6.8 rebounds/g, 2.1 blocks/g, 1.9 steals/g, 56.8% FG, 25.0% 3FG) also had nice counting numbers – 16 points (7-of-9 FG, 1-of-2 3FG) and seven boards.

The two issues that day were, defense, lack thereof, and that no one aside from Beekman, McKneely and Dunn contributed more than four points.

I think Minor helps provide solutions to both of those.