Today seems like a good day to float a not-all-that-crazy Baltimore Orioles trade idea – a package of prospects for San Diego Padres outfielder Juan Soto.
There’s been talk of the O’s putting together packages for New York Mets slugger Pete Alonso or St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, though neither of those guys, who are right-handed hitters, make sense for an obvious reason: the Death Valley that is left and left-center in Camden Yards.
Dead left is 384 feet; left-center, at its deepest point, is 410 feet.
The fences were moved back, and up – the left-field wall was bumped up to 13 feet – ahead of the 2022 season, the idea being to take away the infamously short porch that had played for the park’s first 30 seasons.
The front office has built the starting lineup around the home park, stacking the lineup with left-handed hitters and switch-hitters to take advantage of the still-existing short porch on the right side (318 feet down the right-field line, 373 feet to right-center).
Soto is, yep, a left-handed bat, and a pretty good one.
After a rough opening month, Soto is slashing .277/.426/.500, .926 OPS, 15 homers and 46 RBIs.
That .926 OPS would easily be the best in the O’s lineup (Austin Hays is the current top guy, with an .843 OPS).
Here’s where we imagine Soto hitting third, behind Adley Rutschman (.273/.377/.421, .798 OPS, 11 HR, 36 RBIs), ahead of Anthony Santander (.268/.328/.480, .808 OPS, 14 HR, 47 RBIs) and Hays (.312/.352/.491, .843 OPS, 8 HR, 34 RBIs).
You have Gunnar Henderson (.238/.338/.448, .786 OPS, 11 HR, 30 RBIs) leading off.
Cedric Mullins (.248/.340/.434, .774 OPS, 8 HR, 41 RBIs) hitting sixth. Ryan Mountcastle (.227/.264/.421, .685 OPS, 11 HR, 39 RBIs) hitting seventh.
That’s a lineup 1-7 with some serious pop, and even the 8-9 guys, recent callup Jordan Westburg (.295/.372/.567, .939 OPS, 18 HR, 54 RBIs at Triple-A Norfolk this season) and Adam Frazier (.226/.297/.385, .682 OPS, 9 HR, 35 RBIs) can do some damage at the bottom of the order.
The Padres, for their part in this, are floundering right now, at 39-46, 11 games out in the NL West, seven games back from the final wild-card spot, with a ton of money committed to Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Xander Bogaerts.
The Pads, at the 2022 trade deadline, sent five of their top prospects to the Washington Nationals to get Soto, who is only under team control through the end of the 2024 season, and with all of that money tied up in Machado, Tatis and Bogaerts, and Soto reportedly commanding $40 million-plus to commit long-term, and the 2023 season looking like a wash, it’s looking like it’s time to sell.
The O’s, with the top-ranked minor-league system in MLB, have the most to offer in return.
Assuming the Padres continue to flounder for the next two or three weeks, they have a decision to make with regard to Soto.
It seems almost certain that he’s going somewhere.
Could it be Baltimore?
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Chris Graham
