Going into Friday’s ACC Tournament semifinals, Virginia’s NCAA Tournament resume seemed complete.
What a difference 5.3 seconds makes.
Turns out that blowing a six-point lead in the final minute, and a three-point lead with an 87.3 percent free-throw shooter at the line, and three fouls to give in case he missed, is something that computers can actually notice.
They otherwise seem so impersonal.
Virginia’s average computer ranking on Friday around 9:30, minutes before tipoff: 43.0.
Virginia’s average computer ranking around midnight, after the OT loss to NC State: 48.7.
Everything else is what it is – UVA is 23-10, won 14 games in the ACC, including the postseason, finished third in the conference in the regular season.
Also what it is: just two Quad 1 wins (2-6 record overall), five losses by 20+ points.
And then: there’s the eye test.
Virginia is 5-5 in its last 10 games; in four of those games, the ‘Hoos didn’t get out of the 40s in points scored, four of the five losses were by double-digits, and Virginia’s plus/minus in that 10-game stretch is -58.
If the selection committee is really looking to give at-large bids to teams that have demonstrated themselves capable of winning a championship, I think the case can be made that Virginia doesn’t fit that criterion.
That’s the analyst in me saying that.
The alum and fan in me says: come on, we’ll gladly go to Dayton, just give us a chance.
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Chris Graham
