A decrease in layoffs in Virginia was reported for November 2023 by the Department of Workforce Development and Advancement.
The data is from the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics JOLTS survey, which reveals that layoffs in Virginia fell by 17 percent over the month and by 4,000, or 10 percent, over the year.
On the last business day in November, 249,000 job openings were available in Virginia, an increase of 10,000 from October 2023’s revised 259,000 job openings. Nationwide, the number of job openings changed little at 8.8 million; down from a series high of 12 million in March 2022. Over the month, job openings decreased in transportation, warehousing and utilities and in federal government. Job openings increased in wholesale trade. The largest decreases in the job openings level was in Florida, Georgia and Tennessee. The largest increases were in Texas, Illinois and Colorado.
In Virginia, the November job openings rate was 5.6 percent, down 0.3 points from October 2023. The U.S. job openings rate was unchanged at 5.3 percent in November 2023. The U.S. rate was 2.1 percentage points lower than its peak of 7.4 percent in March 2022 and the lowest since the rate was 5.1 percent in February 2021.
The number of hires in Virginia edged down to 165,000 in November, a decrease of 2,000 over the month and by 1,000 from five years earlier in November 2018. JOLTS defines hires as all additions to the payroll during the month. The number of hires was over double the series low of 81,000 in April 2020. Nationwide in November, the number of hires decreased to 5.5 million.
The Virginia hires-per-job-openings (HPJO) ratio was little changed in November at 66 percent and has been like the rate nationwide in recent months. The measure shows the rate of hiring compared to open jobs and is a proxy for time to fill positions. For the last two years, the rate has hovered between five and six hires for every ten job openings in the Commonwealth.
In November 2023, the Virginia ‘annual fill’ rate, or the ratio of ‘this month’ hires to ’last month’ job openings, over the year, remained significantly above the historical, typical level of 1.0 at 1.14. The fill rate is a measure used to evaluate how labor markets differ in the pace that job openings are filled. An annual fill rate near or above 1.0 can indicate that employers are growing more efficient at filling job openings. On the other hand, an annual fill rate of less than 1.0 can indicate a tighter labor market, with employers having greater difficulty filling job openings compared to a year earlier.
In 2001, the highest annual fill rate was in June 2020 because, after the nationwide shutdown for the COVID-19 pandemic, employers across the country sought to quickly hire for vacated positions. The lowest fill rate in Virginia was in June 2021. During that time, many factors hindered the filling of vacant positions by employers, such as health concerns, employee skills and childcare needs, but the biggest factor was the comparison against the historic re-hiring hike the year before.
On the last business day of November 2023, the number of total separations in Virginia decreased by 14,000 to 142,000. The number of U.S. total separations in November decreased to 5.3 million. The largest decreases in the total separations level were in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and North Carolina. The largest increases were in Washington, as well as in Idaho and South Dakota.
Virginia’s total separations rate decreased from 3.7 to 3.4 percent. The U.S. total separations rate also edged down to 3.4 percent. The total separations rate increased for establishments with 5,000 or more employees.
An estimated 95,000 workers quit jobs from Virginia employers in November. The number of quits decreased by 8,000 from October’s revised figure of 103,000, a 15 percent decrease over-the-year and a 4 percent decrease from five years earlier. Quits, a component of total separations, are voluntary separations initiated by the employee. The number of quits nationwide edged down to 3.5 million. The quits rate in the Commonwealth edged down to 2.3 percent and remained at levels seen over the last two years. Over the month, the U.S. rate was little changed at 2.2 percent. The quits rate increased for establishments with 5,000 or more employees.
The number of layoffs and discharges in Virginia fell to 35,000 in November, a decrease of 10 percent from 2022, but still at low, pre-pandemic levels. Layoffs and discharges are countercyclical, which means that layoffs typically increase during economic contractions and decrease during economic expansions. In November, the number of U.S. layoffs and discharges the number of layoffs and discharges changed little at 1.5 million.
The Virginia layoffs and discharges rate fell to 0.8 percent, while the U.S. rate was unchanged at 1 percent. The largest decreases in layoffs and discharges rates were in Maine and New Jersey, as well as in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. The largest increase occurred in Indiana.
One unemployed worker lived in Virginia in November for every two job openings, within the range that it has hovered since 2021. The period marked the lowest rates since January 2001, when BLS began collecting the data. In Virginia, the unemployed per job opening ratio (sometimes called the ‘job seekers ratio’) peaked at 4.4 unemployed per job opening in February 2010 during the Great Recession. The number of unemployed workers per job opening stood at 3.2 in April 2020 during the height of pandemic employment impacts. Across the U.S., there was a ratio of unemployed people to job openings of 0.7 in November, unchanged over the month. The ratio of unemployed people per job opening has been below 1.0 since July 2021. The number of unemployed people per job opening nationwide reached its highest level of 6.5 in July of 2009, at the height of the Great Recession.
The November 2023 churn rate (the sum of the hires rate and the total separations rate) slowed slightly to 7.4 from October revised 7.7 rate in Virginia yet indicating still-elevated velocity of rotation into and out of jobs. Nationwide’s churn rate fell to 6.9, which was a deacceleration over the month and the slowest rate since 2021. An elevated churn rate indicates a labor market with a high hires rate, a high separations rate, or both, and can signify that workers are moving more frequently into and out of jobs in the labor market. Conversely, a low churn rate indicates a labor market with a low hires rate, a low separations rate, or both.
As the 2023 Holiday season began, Virginia’s labor market remained tight in November, with low levels of layoffs and plentiful job openings. But the number of job openings continued to trend downward across the country as fewer workers jumped from job to job. The churn rate is a measure of this movement, and has steadily trended down since 2021 and, in November, descended to 6.9. This was the slowest pace since the Great Recession recovery year of 2014. For over five years, many have gotten used to the number of job openings being well above separations and hires. In addition to secular changes in how jobs are filled, strong economic growth in 2017 into 2019 drove demand for more workers and was followed by the COVID-19 pandemic, with its massive employment dislocations that have yet to be fully shaken out. Before 2017, however, conditions were much different. In fact, during the 2007-2009 Great Recession and in the years following, the number of hires and separations were significantly higher than job openings.
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Rebecca Barnabi
