Re-reading the tea leaves
It has been a foregone conclusion for months now that Republicans are going to sweep the midterms in November, but … I can’t get over how so many of the polling numbers that I see indicate to me that Democrats and Republicans are basically in a dead heat on the various generic ballots out there.
Polling, being the inexact science that it is, still comes down to the conjecture, and the conjecture has us, I think, supplying the rationale that we have long assumed to be the story of the 2010 midterms to the analyses to make it so that this basic dead heat is a GOP wave.
OK, so it’s basically a dead heat in the polling numbers? No problem. Republican voters are more enthusiastic. Yeah, that’s the ticket. Even if you can just as easily assume that Democrats will come around between now and Election Day and develop enthusiasm of their own. (Um, perhaps, you know, by being constantly reminded that Republicans are more enthusiastic, and on the verge of winning. Which can also demoralize you, of course.)