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First one to 49 wins: Five observations from Virginia’s ugly W over Wake Forest

Chris Graham
uva trey murphy
UVA Hoops alum Trey Murphy III was in the house. Photo: Mike Ingalls/AFP

Virginia won a week ago at Florida State with offense, scoring 80 points in a gritty road win.

Saturday’s win over Wake Forest was the other kind of win.

UVA didn’t get to 50 in either of its two games with Wake – the loss a month ago in Winston-Salem was of the 66-47 variety.

On Saturday, the ‘Hoos topped out at 49, but it was somehow enough.

The key to the somehow: defense.

Wake Forest shot 50 percent from the field and was 10-of-21 from three in the win in the first matchup.

On Saturday: 34.5 percent overall, 5-of-21 from three.

Small forward Hunter Sallis had 21 points on 8-of-13 shooting, 5-of-8 from three, in the Wake win.

On Saturday: Sallis had a more modest 12 points on 5-of-10 shooting, 2-of-4 from three.

Point guard Kevin Miller in the win: 14 points and seven assists.

Kevin Miller in the loss: nine points, two assists and four turnovers.

Power forward Andrew Carr in the win: 12 points and 12 boards.

Andrew Carr on Saturday: four points (1-of-7 FG) and eight rebounds.

Rebounding in the Wake win: Wake 40, UVA 27.

Rebounding on Saturday: Wake 38, UVA 36.

Beekman is Malcolm Brogdon-ing right now

uva reece beekman wake7
Photo: Mike Ingalls/AFP

Reece Beekman had a game-high 20 points on 9-of-16 shooting, 2-of-3 from three, for Virginia on Saturday.

His numbers over his last six: 18.5 points per game, 5.2 assists per game, 47.9 percent shooting from the field, 36.8 percent shooting from three.

Channeling his inner Malcolm Brogdon, Beekman carried UVA in the second half, scoring 14 of the team’s 28 points on 6-of-9 shooting, 2-of-2 from three.

I don’t have a vote, because only the important media folks get votes, but if I did, Beekman is my guy for ACC Player of the Year.

And then there’s Ryan Dunn

uva ryan dunn block wake
Photo: Mike Ingalls/AFP

The two numbskulls who sit next to me on press row (and they know who they are) can’t figure out how Ryan Dunn is a projected 2024 first-round NBA Draft pick.

Here’s how: seven blocked shots.

Dunn’s offensive game is, well, offensive: he had six points on 3-of-8 shooting, and airballed a free throw, again.

Nine rebounds. Seven blocked shots.

He allowed one make on defense on the day, and it was his defense on the final play on Cam Hildreth that forced a bad Hildreth miss as time expired.

Dunn’s offensive game has work to do; his defense is NBA-ready now.

Another offensively-challenged guy who had a big impact

uva jordan minor wake forest
Photo: Mike Ingalls/AFP

You know who I’m about to tout here: Jordan Minor.

I’m Minor’s unpaid PR guy.

The season turned around when Tony Bennett put the grad transfer in the starting lineup.

Minor’s scoring has trailed off in his last four games, but one thing that hasn’t trailed off is his work on the defensive end.

On Saturday, Minor didn’t score, missed his only shot from the floor, missed a pair of free throws, but he had four rebounds, a blocked shot and a steal in 19 minutes, and his +6 plus/minus was the second-best on the team (Dunn: +11).

The free-throw shooting

It’s hard to imagine that a D1 team has ever won a game shooting 1-of-11 from the line, which is what Virginia did on Saturday.

One of damn 11.

I’m going to try here to craft an expected free-throw percentage based on the season numbers for the guys who were at the line on Saturday.

Here goes:

  • Jordan Minor: 0-for-3 – season: 60.0 percent – expected makes: 1.80
  • Ryan Dunn: 0-for-3 (including a miss on the front end of a one-and-one) – season: 56.1 percent – expected makes: 2.24
  • Blake Buchanan: 0-for-2 – season: 56.4 percent – expected makes: 1.12
  • Reece Beekman: 0-for-1 (missed front end of a one-and-one) – season: 75.3 percent – expected makes: 1.56
  • Isaac McKneely: 1-for-2 – season: 89.5 percent – expected makes: 1.78

So, there you have it. Virginia was 1-of-11 at the line. The math suggests it should have been more like 9-of-13.

Eight more points is a 10-point win, instead of one needing a defensive stop on the last play.

Chris Graham

Chris Graham

Chris Graham is the founder and editor of Augusta Free Press. A 1994 alum of the University of Virginia, Chris is the author and co-author of seven books, including Poverty of Imagination, a memoir published in 2019, and Team of Destiny: Inside Virginia Basketball’s Run to the 2019 National Championship, and The Worst Wrestling Pay-Per-View Ever, published in 2018. For his commentaries on news, sports and politics, go to his YouTube page, or subscribe to his Street Knowledge podcast. Email Chris at [email protected].