McAuliffe still leads in Survey USA

Another day, another poll, and another direction in the 2009 Democratic Party gubernatorial race. This one comes from Survey USA, which has Terry McAuliffe in the lead by six points over Creigh Deeds in numbers that do represent some movement from the most recent Survey USA poll, but not much.  

The latest Survey USA rendering of the race, released on Wednesday, has McAuliffe at 35 percent, down from his 37 percent showing two weeks ago. Deeds was at 29 percent, up from his 26 percent showing in the May 20 release. Brian Moran made a slightly bigger leap in the numbers, at 26 percent today after being at 22 percent in the late May poll.

Looking at the internals:

– McAuliffe held at 34 percent among Shenandoah Valley voters, but Deeds, who hails from Bath County, has taken a slim lead in his home region, going from 33 percent on May 20 to 37 percent today.

– The relative strength of McAuliffe and Deeds in Central Virginia and Hampton Roads seems to have flip-flopped, perhaps reflecting the volatile nature of polling for a primary electorate than anything else. McAuliffe had been polling at 52 percent in Hampton Roads in May, but was down to 36 percent and in second in that region to Deeds’ 42 percent as of this week’s polling. Deeds, meanwhile, went from first to a distant second to McAuliffe in Central Virginia, where McAuliffe now leads by a 39 percent-to-23 percent margin. Moran is pulling 43 percent of the vote in Democrat vote-rich Northern Virginia to 29 percent for McAuliffe in second.

– McAuliffe holds at least a slight lead in all four age demographics (18-34, 35-49, 50-64 and 65+), but his lead is biggest among the 18-34s (where he’s getting 41 percent of the vote, to 25 percent for Deeds and 24 percent for Moran). The 18-34s are also traditionally the hardest group to actually get to the polls, and you’d have to think it would be even harder to get them to turn out reliably in a primary.

 

– Story by Chris Graham


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