Inside the Numbers: More on the ridiculous notion that UVA is on the tourney bubble

UVA AthleticsVirginia is your reigning, defending, undisputed national champion, winners of seven of eight, 11-5 in the ACC, and somehow still a 10 seed in the bracket renderings of Joe Lunardi and Jerry Palm.

The. System. Is. Broken.

Ahem.

Let’s take a deeper dive.

Virginia (19-7, 11-5 ACC)

NET: 51 KenPom: 48 KPI: 31 Sagarin: 27 ESPN BPI: 40 ESPN SOR: 32
AVG RATING: 38.2
Q1: 3-3 Q2: 6-3 Q3: 5-1 Q4: 5-0

Upcoming games: at Virginia Tech, Duke, at Miami, Louisville

Analysis: Better keep winning

Nothing easy down the stretch. Virginia Tech is reeling, having lost seven of eight, but that one’s a rivalry game on the road.

Miami has won three of its last four, and late-season games at Miami can be tough with almost nobody in the building, and thus no energy.

The two home games are chances to get quality wins, but they’re also against Top 10 teams.

Go 2-2 down the stretch, and you get to 13 in the ACC, you’re at 21 overall, and you’re probably good.

I say probably good, because the metrics are so weird.

To wit on that point: Minnesota, at 13-13, is 43 in NET, 31 in KenPom, an average rating among the six used by the selection committee of 45.7, better than any of the ACC’s four bubble teams (N.C. State, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Clemson), and, just to make this clear, Minnesota is 13-13, with a 7-13 record against Q1 and Q2.

A more egregious case of how off everything is: Rutgers.

The Scarlet Knights are 17-10, with an average rating of 38.5, a sliver behind the ‘Hoos.

Rutgers is 7-9 against Q1 and Q2, and has exactly one win away from home this season (1-7 on the road, 0-2 neutral).

That single win away from home this season: at Nebraska, which is 7-19 this season.

The computers have that team comparable to a Virginia team that is 9-6 against Q1 and Q2 and is 7-4 away from JPJ.

The. System. Is. Broken.

Story by Chris Graham


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