Just because things are rolling, Virginia coach Tony Bennett said Tuesday night, doesn’t mean they’ll continue to.
Pitt sliced and diced UVA’s Pack Line in a 74-63 win at JPJ that ended the Cavaliers’ eight-game winning streak.
Next up for the ‘Hoos (19-6, 10-4 ACC): Wake Forest (16-8, 8-5 ACC) on Saturday (12 noon ET, ESPN2).
You probably remember the first matchup with Wake down in Winston-Salem, which the Demon Deacons won rather easily, 66-47, on Jan. 13.
That game was the first time that grad senior Jordan Minor started at center for Virginia.
Minor, in 22 minutes, had nine points, five rebounds and a blocked shot, battling head-to-head with 7’0” Gonzaga transfer Efton Reid, who had nine points, eight rebounds and five blocks in 32 minutes.
The insertion of Minor into the starting lineup was meant to shore up the post defensively, and the post defense of Minor was the key thing in the winning streak that started in Virginia’s next game, a 65-57 win over Virginia Tech on Jan. 17.
The issue in the first Wake game was more on the offensive end. Virginia shot 31.6 percent from the floor, and doing a deep dive, it was uglier than that.
The ‘Hoos were 4-of-14 on shots at the rim – note the five blocks by Reid – and also put up an inordinate number of midrange jumpers.
As in, 31, and Virginia made just eight of those – that 8-of-31 mark representing a 25.8 percent success rate.
It would be one thing if this Wake team was particularly stout on the defensive end, but, no.
KenPom ranks the Deacs 43rd nationally, not bad, but …
They were burned for 83 in a loss to NC State in their next game, and they’ve given up an average of 73.8 points per game since the blowout win over UVA.
Wake lineup
The other Gonzaga transfer, 6’5” junior Hunter Sallis (18.7 ppg, 4.0 rebs/g, 2.5 assists/g, 49.9% FG, 40.3% 3FG) torched Virginia in the first matchup – 21 points, 8-of-13 shooting, 5-of-8 from three and nine rebounds in 35 minutes.
Kevin Miller (15.7 ppg, 3.9 assists/g, 46.3% FG, 32.4% 3FG), the 6’0” Central Michigan transfer point guard, also had a big game first time out – 14 points and seven assists in 38 minutes.
The Deacs have two other guys averaging in double-digits – 6’10” senior Andrew Carr (14.0 ppg, 6.8 rebs/g, 54.0% FG, 40.3% 3FG), and 6’4” junior Cam Hildreth (14.0 ppg, 4.8 rebs/g, 2.6 assists/g, 45.1% FG, 36.7% 3FG).
In the first game with Virginia, Carr had 12 points and 12 rebounds, and Hildreth had a quiet seven points on an off shooting day (3-of-11 FG, 1-of-6 3FG).
Reid (8.8 ppg, 8.1 rebs/g, 1.5 blocks/g, 48.7% FG, 21.1% 3FG) was a difference-maker on the boards and with rim protection first time out.
The key bench guys: 6’6” senior Damari Monsanto (6.7 ppg, 36.8% FG, 37.8% 3FG), 6’3” freshman Parker Friedrichsen (5.8 ppg, 43.8% FG, 41.2% 3FG) and 7’1” junior Matthew Marsh (1.7 ppg, 3.4 rebs/g, 12.9 mins/g).
How Virginia matches up
It’s notable that Jordan Minor started and played 22 minutes in the first game. That one is the only loss in which Minor got double-digit minutes as the starter this season.
Inexplicably, Minor got just eight minutes the other night in the loss to Pitt.
As I noted in a column yesterday, Bennett overreacted to Pitt’s early offensive success and let himself get outcoached there.
Because Minor was a factor in the loss down in Winston-Salem, you can’t just write that one off like you could the losses at Notre Dame and NC State, which Virginia was able to reverse in the return bouts in JPJ, with Minor in the middle.
The UVA offense, as noted above, stunk to high heaven in the loss at Wake, but the defense was almost equally bad – Wake shot 50 percent from the floor, was 10-of-21 from three, and basically got what it wanted, when it wanted.
Virginia will need to get a better defensive game from Ryan Dunn (9.0 ppg, 7.0 rebs/g, 2.2 blocks/g, 58.7% FG, 24.0% 3FG), who was torched on Monday night – Synergy Sports had him on the hook for 16 points on 6-of-10 shooting in the loss to Pitt, in his matchup with Pitt stretch four Blake Hinson.
Reece Beekman (14.0 ppg, 6.0 assists/g, 2.3 steals/g, 45.3% FG, 29.7% 3FG) has been on an offensive tear of late – averaging 18.2 points and 5.4 assists in his last five games.
Beekman had a quiet 10 points and four assists in the loss at Wake last month.
Also picking up some offensive slack of late: Isaac McKneely (12.5 ppg, 42.7% FG, 47.3% 3FG), who is averaging 15.6 points per game in his last five.
Important stat: iMac is 13-of-25 (52.0 percent) on midrange jumpers in his last five; in his previous 19 games, he had made 21-of-64 (32.8 percent) in the midrange.
Because Wake goes big across the front line – the 7’0” Reid, 6’10” Carr and 7’1″ Marsh average a combined 71.7 minutes per game, so, effectively, coach Steve Forbes goes with two bigs for around 36 of the 40 minutes of game time per outing – Virginia will need to get contributions out of Minor (4.3 ppg, 2.8 rebs/g, 50.6% FG) and 6’11” freshman Blake Buchanan (3.8 ppg, 3.2 rebs/g, 44.4% FG) down low, and Bennett will almost certainly need to use 6’9” stretch four Jake Groves (8.0 ppg, 50.0% FG, 50.0% 3FG) to body up to big guys for more minutes than he’d want to.
If you can’t already tell, I don’t like this matchup for Virginia, which is, in the face of my analysis, a slight favorite (ESPN BPI and BartTorvik: two points, KenPom and EvanMiya: one point).
I hope they’re right.
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Chris Graham
