Mark Warner brought up something today that I hadn’t realized until he said it: that Abigail Spanberger would have won the governor’s race without Northern Virginia.
“People will say, Well, Democrats won, or Spanberger won, because of Northern Virginia. You actually could take Northern Virginia out of the difference, and Democrats still won the governorship, and that is, I think, a remarkable achievement,” Warner said on a call with reporters on Thursday.
As I am wont to do, I checked the facts on that, and, indeed, he’s right – Spanberger had a +431,000 vote margin in what we know as Northern Virginia, and her total statewide margin in the race with the Republican nominee, Winsome Earle-Sears, was +487,000.
Meaning: Spanberger won south of the Northern Virginia crescent ring by 56,000 votes.
That’s obviously a close race, but, as Warner points out, it runs counter to what you’d expect.
“I was particularly happy as somebody who, my mantra for my 20-plus years, and this has been, you got to let folks in rural communities have the same hope as folks in more urban communities,” said Warner, who, yes, made it a point, dating back to his first run for public office, way, way back in 1996, when he challenged John Warner for the U.S. Senate seat that he eventually won in the 2008 cycle, after serving a term as governor, to not just cede red areas to Republicans.
Mark Warner sounded like a proud papa when he talked up the win by Democrat Lily Wagner in the HD 41 race in the Roanoke area, in which she unseated Republican incumbent Chris Obenshain Jr.
“The fact that Democrats now have a delegate west of Roanoke, I think her message and focusing on basics and not going to the extremes and focusing on affordability really resonates, and it is something that is so terribly important,” Warner said.
Warner on the shutdown: ‘Let’s get the government open’
Warner said on the call that he hopes his “Republican friends got the message” sent by voters statewide: that “Americans, Virginians, want us focused on affordability.”
Narrator: the election was Tuesday, it’s Thursday, the government is still in shutdown, so, no, they didn’t get the message.
The affordability mantra is what is at the heart of the shutdown fight that is now in its 37th day in Washington.
Republicans forced the shutdown to protect their Big Ugly Bill scheme that is paying down the cost of their tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires by cutting trillions from Medicare and Affordable Care Act subsidies – literally taking from the working class and middle class to give to the rich.
To make matters worse, Donald Trump is violating a court order in withholding SNAP benefits that 42 million Americans rely on to be able to put food on their tables as a lever to try to force Democrats to agree to the healthcare cuts.
“We’ve been saying, let’s get the government open,” Warner said. “I know people are hurting. I heard that as I met with voters all across the weekend, but they also are terrified by the affordability cliff that’s coming with healthcare. As people see the new rates, they’re terrified. If they’re the one out of eight Virginians who get food assistance, and the downright cruelty of this administration, they could have put a full plan in place, but instead, they are hedging and hesitating and how much they’re going to reimburse, which just adds more nervousness to Virginians.”
The ball is in the court of the GOP.
“Remember, they control the schedule and what we vote on, when we vote on it,” Warner said. “I know there’s discussions back and forth, but one of the things that’s also problematic is, there’s such a lack of trust, whether, you know, even if you get the government, and when we get the government to reopen, which I hope will be shortly, how do you make sure that this administration adheres to a deal?”
Narrator: you don’t.
Warner on the House permanent vacation: ‘Height of irresponsibility’
Even if the Senate were to vote on an amended continuing resolution aimed at getting the government to reopen, there would need to be a vote in the House of Representatives on the bill that would come out of the Senate – which is hard to do with the House on permanent vacation.
House Speaker Mike Johnson put the House on hiatus on Oct. 1, and it’s now in Week 6 of its version of the “Summer of George,” members eating blocks of cheese in their pajamas on the couch, binge-watching “The View” and “Hot Bench.”
“The fact that the Speaker has kept the house out of session, I wish I could take him around to folks in Northern Virginia and some of the voters, and let him explain to people who have gone without a paycheck for six or seven weeks and are now dipping into their savings or remortgaging their home, why he ought to get on a paid vacation? Because Congress is getting paid. I’m not taking my salary. I’m dedicating it, donating at all to the Federal Employee Relief Fund. But it is the height of irresponsibility,” Warner said.
Congressional redistricting: They started it
Virginia Republicans have been crying foul over the move by Democrats to start the process for undoing the congressional districts that were drawn up after the 2020 Census, as a response to what the Trumpers convinced Texas Republicans to do in their state, aiming to get a few more seats for the Rs in the 2026 midterms.
It is said of MAGA voters that they admire politicians who tell it like it is: well, on this, they should like Warner, because he tells it like it is.
“Remember who started this. This wasn’t started by Democrats. It was started by Donald Trump and a bunch of folks in Texas to say, let’s try to cook the books. They know the American people are turning against his policies, and they’re trying to, frankly, cheat the system by redistricting,” Warner said.
Fact-check: absolutely true.
“I think what Virginia Democrats did, and I want to give a big shout out again, both the leaders, Leader Surovell in the Senate, and Speaker Scott, they’re saying, Virginians ought to have a chance to weigh in on this, if this is happening all around,” Warner said. “Remember, in North Carolina, they did this without any voter approval. In Virginia, if the legislature moves forward, Virginians will have a chance to weigh in on whether they want this to happen or not. But let’s, you know, let’s not pretend that this was somehow popped into the political debate out of thin air. This popped into the political debate because Donald Trump knew his policies were sticking it to Americans, and they’re trying to cook the books for the 2026 election. If Texas and these other states would back off, I think there would be no support in Virginia for redistricting. They’ve already taken that first step, and we’ll see how it plays through the legislature and with the new governor. But again, I just remind people in Virginia, voters will have a chance and have a say on whether they want this to happen or not.”
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Chris Graham
