The UVA Football program is one win away from going bowling for the first time since the 2019 Orange Bowl.
#12 SMU is one win away from a berth in the ACC Championship Game in its first season in the league.
Both have a lot to play for on Saturday (noon ET, ESPN2).
The two have three common opponents:
- Louisville: SMU won 34-27; Virginia lost 24-20.
- Pitt: SMU won 48-25; Virginia won 24-19.
- Boston College: SMU won 38-28; Virginia won 24-14.
That tidbit surprises you, doesn’t it?
Three common opponents, SMU is 3-0, Virginia is 2-1, with the loss coming in the final two minutes.
SMU is a 9.5-point favorite, and ESPN Analytics gives the Mustangs a 78.2 percent chance of winning.
I don’t think it’s that obvious, personally.
SMU probably wins, but this one will be a game.
SMU offense
You hear a lot about the QB, Kevin Jennings. His numbers aren’t quite what I expected based on the hype – 219.8 passing yards per game, 34.5 sack-adjusted rushing yards per game, 65.4 percent completion percentage, 15 TDs/6 INTs.
He had 281 yards passing and 113 yards on the ground in the win over Louisville, 306 yards and two passing TDs in the win over Pitt (his only official rushing attempt in that one was a sack), 298 yards, three TDs and one INT (with four rushes going for a cumulative -2 yards) in the win over BC.
If you just saw the numbers from the Louisville game, you’d think, second coming of Lamar Jackson.
Reality: more than a third of his rushing yards this season came in that game.
Gotta account for him on the edges – 25 of his 35 designed runs were around left end and right end, and he averages 5.1 yards per attempt on those; he’s averaging 7.1 yards on scrambles.
The tailback, Brashard Smith, is averaging 102.6 yards per game, with 12 TDs on the ground.
A lot of his rushing is the hard stuff, up the middle (461 yards on 52 attempts through the A gap, 8.9 yards per carry), and he’s a load there – 245 of those yards are after contact.
The focus of the ground attack is A gap and to the right side of the O line – Smith has 353 yards on 67 attempts behind right guard, right tackle and around the right end, 5.3 yards per attempt.
Smith is also a weapon in the passing game – 27 catches on 29 targets, 207 yards and two TDs through the air, the bulk of that on screens (21 catches/22 targets, 113 yards).
Drops can be an issue for the wideouts. Jordan Hudson (23 catches/38 targets, 277 yards, four TDs) has four drops. Jake Bailey (19 catches/32 targets, 275 yards, one TD) has three. Roderick Daniels (21 catches/29 targets, 411 yards, two TDs) has two.
Keyshawn Smith (25 catches/37 targets, 415 yards, four TDs) has zero drops, and he’s the best deep target (five catches on balls traveling 20+ yards).
Defense
You’ll hear the names of the four guys in the two-deep at defensive end a lot on Saturday – Jahfari Harvey (five sacks, 30 QB pressures), Elijah Roberts (four sacks, 44 QB pressures), Isaiah Smith (four sacks, 26 QB pressures) and Cameron Robertson (two sacks, 23 QB pressures).
Nose tackle Jared Harrison-Hunte also gets plenty of pressure (three sacks, 31 QB pressure).
Linebacker Kobe Wilson (81 tackles, 11 missed tackles) leads the team in bringing guys to the ground.
The safeties are good – Ahmaad Moses (three INTs, three pass breakups, 57.8 NFL passer rating against and Isaiah Nwokobia (three INTs, two PBUs, 70.5 NFL passer rating against), and the best cover corner is Deuce Harmon (one INT, five PBUs, 75.9 NFL passer rating against).
What’s going on this week with the ‘Hoos?
- UVA Football: Tony Elliott is trying to convince himself to stick with Anthony Colandrea
- Injury report: ‘Hoos in, ‘Hoos out for UVA Football for this week’s game with #12 SMU
- UVA Football: Jonas Sanker wins another ACC Defensive Back of the Week honor
- Report Card: How did UVA Football do this year with the transfer portal?
Details
Day/time: Saturday, noon ET
Series: First-ever meeting
ESPN: Roy Philpott (play-by-play), Sam Acho (analyst), Taylor Davis (sideline)
SiriusXM Radio: SiriusXM 139 / SiriusXM 194 / SiriusXM 381
SiriusXM App: SiriusXM 956 / SiriusXM 971
Line: SMU -9.5
Over/under: 58
Projected final score: SMU 29, Virginia 20
Video: UVA vs. SMU preview
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Chris Graham
