A new VCU poll, out on Friday, has Democrat Abigail Spanberger with a 10-point lead on Republican Winsome Earle-Sears in the 2025 governor’s race.
It’s early, would be my message here.
Spanberger just wrapped her third and final term as the congresswoman from the Seventh District, which encompasses a swath of the Route 29 corridor north of Albemarle County and touches the Richmond and Northern Virginia exurbs.
Earle-Sears is the sitting lieutenant governor, which is a job that doesn’t require a lot from the person holding it, other than being available to bang the gavel when the State Senate is in session.
Both seem to have cleared the way for unencumbered runs to their respective party nominations, which, if that holds, will guarantee that Virginia will have its first female governor.
(Apologies to Mary Sue Terry on that.)
The political winds would naturally provide a boost to Spanberger, in a state that gave Kamala Harris a 5.8-point win over Donald Trump in an election that went to Trump by 1.5 points nationwide.
We also have this tradition dating back to the 1970s of voting for the party nominee opposite the party of the newly-inaugurated president.
That’s an odd-year election reaction to the overreach of the party in power in D.C. thing.
We’re only a week into Trump 2.0, and, yep, the overreach there is strong.
The VCU poll also offered a snapshot of the 2026 U.S. Senate race, which, at this stage, could involve a challenge to incumbent Democrat Mark Warner from the sitting Republican governor, Glenn Youngkin.
Talk about early – we’re 22 months out from that one, if it even materializes.
The early snapshot: Warner by seven.
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Chris Graham
