Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump will share the stage on Tuesday night in what may be the only debate of the presidential race between the two candidates.
Multiple polls show the presidential race is tight with many results in the margin of error. With eight weeks to go before Election Day, some voters may be looking to the debate to help them choose which candidate they will vote for.
“Although debates typically do not have detectable differences on vote choice, this year might well be one of the exceptions, reflecting the evident closeness of the race and the divisions between and within the two major parties,” said Karen Hult, a political scientist at Virginia Tech.
Her colleague agrees but raises the stakes of each candidate’s debate performance saying he believes the debate alone could determine the winner of the presidential race.
“Debates have a way of reframing elections, and a bad debate performance by either candidate can have a significant impact on their campaign,” said Cayce Myers, a public relations expert at Tech. “Even a slight drop in support can create a potential loss in November.”
With summer behind families, Hult thinks that voters are paying more attention to the race as we get closer to Election Day, and she expects a large number of people to tune in for the debate.
“Many potential voters do not focus on fall presidential elections until after Labor Day,” she said. “The earliness of the first and perhaps only debate between Harris and Trump, combined with voters’ possible lack of familiarity with Harris, her views, and her agenda, suggest large numbers of people likely will try to view or listen to at least some of the debate,” Hult said.
It’s unknown how the two candidates will respond to each other during the debate. Trump and Harris have apparently never met. Both candidates are busy prepping in advance of the televised presidential debate.
“Harris faces the challenge of building upon her strong emergence as a presidential candidate and the generally successful Democratic National Convention,” Hult said.
Her responses to criticisms of the Biden-Harris administration, past positions and actions as an elected official, and questions about her plans for a Harris-Walz administration will be scrutinized, Hult said.
“She also will be expected to be knowledgeable, calm, and decisive, and appear able to work with and earn the respect of those in the military and in other countries,” she said.
Myers expects Harris to engage Trump on issues where he seems out-of-sync with voters.
“Democrats have used the issue of abortion access and a woman’s right to choose as a central campaign issue,” Myers said. “She will likely bring up that issue and also attempt to tie Trump to Project 2025, a conservative policy plan created by the Heritage Foundation that Trump has attempted to distance himself from.”
Instead of talking about his golf game, Trump must clearly articulate what his plans are for a second term. Trump, possibly trying to set low expectations for his performance, has already called the debate “rigged” and said the questions are unfair before he’s even heard them.
“Trump also will need to display policy understanding and to articulate plans for a second term as president and whether and how it might differ from the first,” Hult said.
She said he should be prepared to answer questions related to his court cases and convictions. Hult also thinks women will be watching to see how Trump interacts with Harris after his treatment of and comments about women in the past.
Trump will likely accuse Harris of flip-flopping on issues including fracking, border security and police.
“He will also bring up her policy plans for price controls and taxation of unrealized gains as examples of how her administration would increase inflation and cause economic harm,” Myers said.
It’s not just what they say but also their delivery that matters, according to Myers.
“There is an element of entertainment, which means candidates have to be energetic,” Myers said. “Debate comments from either candidate have the power to resonate with voters positively and negatively, and, as the Trump-Biden debate showed, these unscripted comments have a viral quality that frames the election narrative.”
The Harris team wanted the microphones unmuted in this debate but eventually agreed to have them muted while the other candidate responds to questions from the moderator. However, if the rules are the same as the Trump-Biden debate, both candidates will share the split screen so you can still see the visual response of the candidates to each other.
“Harris’ team likely wants Trump to come across as aggressive and bombastic, which may alienate voters,” Myers said. “His off-the-cuff statements have been problematic for him in the past and can be repackaged as campaign content — that’s the underlying issue with the muted mic debate rules.”
The debate starts at 9 p.m. on ABC and is expected to last 90 minutes.
Early voting in Virginia begins on Sept. 20.
A vice-presidential debate will be hosted by CBS News on Oct. 1.
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 5.
In 2020, results of the election were not known immediately due to tight races in some states. Most media organizations declared the winner as President Joe Biden four days later.
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Crystal Graham
