The path for UVA Football to reach six wins this season is easy to navigate.
But first, I must rant a bit.
Six wins: has the bar on a UVA Football season being deemed as successful reached this low?
Absolutely.
Heck, the talk in most media circles has head coach Tony Elliott returning in 2025 with as few as four wins.
If he did win four games this season, that would be 10 wins in three seasons.
If the bar were any lower, it would be on the ground.
More college football
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- New NCAA scholarship limits will allow the big boys to stockpile players again
- NCAA set to increase roster, scholarship limits for football, baseball
- Why didn’t the ACC include more UVA names on the All-ACC Preseason Football ballot?
Now back to how the Cavaliers can win at least six games, thus becoming bowl-eligible, and playing in a meaningless glorified exhibition game far north of the Mason-Dixon line.
The first four games on the slate will provide the compass for Virginia of having a modestly successful campaign – or having the coaching staff circling the wagons.
If you haven’t bothered to start planning your fall activities around the UVA Football schedule, you’re not alone. From what we know, the season ticket demand has been, being nice, low.
UVA opens against FCS opponent Richmond, then travels to Winston-Salem to face Wake Forest. The Cavaliers return home for a Friday night clash with Maryland, and next travels to play Coastal Carolina.
If Virginia doesn’t return to Charlottesville on the evening of Sept. 21 with at least a 3-1 record, then things are really going to get ugly.
Why?
Richmond is an FCS team.
Wake finished below Virginia last season, with low expectations this year.
Maryland lost its stellar QB, and the game is in Scott Stadium.
Coastal Carolina lost its top player, QB Grayson McCall, to the transfer portal (NC State). The Chanticleers are in a huge rebuild.
So, anything less than 3-1 is going to become problematic.
Again, why?
The remainder of the slate is scary.
Virginia faces a solid Louisville team in Charlottesville, ahead of a game in Death Valley with Clemson.
UVA will play on the road against Notre Dame, Pitt and Virginia Tech, all in November.
That’s not good.
So, as the old saying goes, Make hay while the sun shines. The first four games of the season better involve some serious hay.
How does the narrative look for UVA Football in 2024 on a national level?
From what I’ve read, fair.
Virginia didn’t exactly win many preseason accolades on the national or even the ACC level.
In the preseason ACC media balloting, there were several key positions where the Cavaliers had no player even nominated.
ESPN’s Bill Connelly offered up a fair opinion about the Cavaliers’ 2024 outlook:
“Looking back on 2023, a true freshman led the team in passing, the offensive line featured two freshmen and two sophomores. The 2023 season felt like a second first year for head coach Tony Elliott,” said Connelly.
Connelly then added, “Whoever wins the QB battle will no longer be protected by two freshman tackles, and that’s a positive.”
Overall, the ESPN analytics are not favorable for the 2024 Virginia season.
ESPN is giving the Cavaliers a 0.3 percent chance of winning the ACC championship, which at 0.3 percent, I feel, is generous. And just a 16.9 percent chance of reaching the required six wins to play a football bowl game in an iconic Major league Baseball stadium in late December.
Six wins?
That’s the goal.
I’m old school. I remember when the most successful coach in UVA Football history, George Welsh, routinely won seven or more games in what was then an 11-game regular season.
And that was good enough for every Virginia fan.
Until it wasn’t, and Welsh was not so gently nudged out the door after the 2000 season.
Then, the return to the dark ages of Virginia Football occurred.
It wasn’t until Bronco Mendenhall came to Charlottesville and led the Cavaliers to the 2019 Orange Bowl that it felt like Virginia had again emerged.
Like Welsh was ushered out in 2000, so was Mendenhall after the 2021 season.
Three years later, and six wins is the mark of a good season.
Yep, the bar is that low.
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