A Virginia Tech professor who has researched public opinion in Ukraine for a decade is seeing interest from Ukrainians to negotiate an end to the country’s two-plus-year war with Russia.
“This is an attitude from a place of pain, not from a place of peace. Ukrainians don’t want to lose and don’t want to concede territories to Russia. But growing numbers, not yet a majority, it should be noted, are willing to state publicly that concessions are necessary to bring the war to an end,” said Gerard Toal, a professor of government and international affairs with the Virginia Tech School of Public and International Affairs.
Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the goal from Russian leader Vladimir Putin being to keep the former Soviet satellite state in his country’s sphere of influence, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was openly discussing his country’s interest in aligning with the U.S.-led NATO alliance.
U.S. and the EU have committed billions of dollars and euros in aid to Ukraine, which has helped the strapped nation, by and large, to be able to repel the Russian invaders.
Toal answered a series of questions on his research in an online Q&A.
What does your research indicate about how Ukrainian public opinion has changed over time?
“My colleagues and I have measured Ukrainian public opinion for years now. Initially, after the February 2022 invasion, there was some openness to negotiations. Russian war crimes in Bucha and Irpin, which were revealed in April 2022, changed that. Attitudes hardened. But the war has been long and bloody. Ukrainians have suffered greatly. That is why we’re seeing greater numbers of people indicating they want a ceasefire and settlement even if means territorial losses.”
What were the challenges involved in conducting these surveys?
“Researching public opinion in wartime is difficult. It took our Ukrainian survey research partner weeks to conduct this survey because people were hard to reach, often reluctant to talk, and the power supply was erratic. What we have is a slice of Ukrainian opinion but there is a lot more complexity to it. There are also, I’d wager, many voices that we are not capturing because they don’t have mobile phones, don’t want to talk to strangers calling up asking about the war, and don’t want to say what they really think. So we’ve got to keep those factors in mind.”
What are the causes of the shifts in public opinion?
“Generally, it is the cumulative human and material effects of the war, but the blockage of aid to Ukraine by the U.S. House of Representatives also was a wake-up call, bringing a realization that support may not always be there. Ukrainians never wanted this war. It was inflicted upon them.”
What options does Ukraine have for bringing the war to an end?
“Ukraine has long pursued the goal of a military victory over Russia. Some still think this is possible. Others pin their hopes on new weapon systems, F-16s, long-range deep strikes into Russia, etc. Yet others hope that some NATO states, like Poland, will become directly involved militarily on the side of Ukraine. The evidence suggests that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recognizes that Ukraine needs to sit down with Russia and negotiate. But he wants to do this from the best position possible, which is why he authorized the Kursk operation, a Ukrainian military invasion of a lightly defended region of Russia.”
Are there indications that Ukraine’s leadership has been influenced by the shifting opinion detected in your research?
“Ukraine’s presidential administration is well aware of the shifts in public. They’re also conscious that any stance toward negotiations is potentially dangerous for them. Adopting the most hawkish position is usually the safest during war, especially an invasion. Yet, at the same time, they are aware that more and more people want the war to end. What has really influenced their thinking, however, is the prospect of Donald Trump becoming president of the United States again, as they view Trump as sympathetic to Russia and Putin. Thus, Ukraine’s leaders have tried to involve China and India in a push to get Russia to the negotiations table.”
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Chris Graham
