The employment situation: Little change in United States from October to November

The unemployment rate for November 2022 remained unchanged from October 2022.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the rate has remained between 3.5 and 3.7 percent since March 2022. The number of unemployed Americans also remained unchanged at 6 million in November.

The unemployment rate for men, 3.4 percent, changed little or not at all since October. The rate for women was 3.3 percent in November, 11.3 percent for teens, 3.2 percent for white Americans and 5.7 percent for Blacks.

The number of unemployed rose by 127,000 to 1.4 million in November, and the number of long-term unemployed (jobless for 27 weeks or more) changed little at 1.2 million. BLS states that long-term unemployed accounted for 20.6 percent of unemployed Americans.

The United States’ labor force participation rate, 62.1 percent, and employment to population ratio, 59.9 percent, changed little last month. Both have shown little change since 2022 began, and each are 1.3 percent below values seen in February 2020 before the COVID-19 pandemic.

The number of Americans not working but who want employment changed little at 5.6 million in November, and remains above the February 2020 level of 5 million. These Americans were not counted by BLS as unemployed because they did not actively seek work in November.

Congressman Don Beyer of Virginia, chair of the U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee, released a statement Friday in response to November 2022’s jobs report.

“Today’s jobs report makes clear that the U.S. economy is benefitting from continued strong and sustainable job growth, thanks in large part to the investments this Congress has made on behalf of U.S. workers and families. Under President Biden, the United States has added a historic 10.5 million jobs, experiencing 22 straight months of job gains. The strong gains reported today underscore the resilience of our economy and lessen concerns about an imminent recession,” Beyer said in a press release.

According to Beyer, the country has recovered more than all the jobs lost during the pandemic, and the national unemployment rate is near a 50-year low. Job growth is back to normal and at stable levels, while wage gains are strong and supporting working families.

“The strength of our labor market rebound is a testament to President Biden’s economic plan and Democrats’ actions to rebuild the middle class and address persistent economic disparities. Laws like the American Rescue Plan, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act have laid the groundwork for more inclusive economic growth,” Beyer said in the press release.

Along with an employment recovery, strong GDP growth and confident consumer spending amidst “global economic headwinds, the U.S. economy has shown remarkable strength and resilience.”

In Virginia, according to WalletHub, new unemployment claims were 34.05 percent lower the week of November 21.

In the personal finance website’s 2022’s States Where Unemployment Claims are Decreasing the Most, Virginia’s decrease was the 11^th biggest in the country, and unemployment claims were nearly 91 percent lower in that week than the same week in 2021. This showed the biggest decrease across the country. Weekly claims were 76 percent lower in the same week in 2019, also the biggest decrease in the U.S.

WalletHub Analyst Jill Gonzalez offers comments on what an expected unemployment rate of 5 percent next year could mean for the U.S. economy.

“This shouldn’t be surprising news, since the Fed is taking further steps to damper inflation. While higher unemployment is bad for the families affected, it is good news for the economy as a whole in the current inflationary environment because it should eventually lead to a decrease in inflation. The current projections should also lead to a decrease in interest rates in 2024, once inflation has hopefully subsided enough,” Gonzalez said in a press release.

Gonzalez said that unemployment is expected to pick up again after a large Fed rate hike.

“The chances of a sharp rise in unemployment in the U.S. over the coming year are high. The unemployment rate was expected to average 3.7 percent this year before rising to 4.4 percent and 4.8 percent in 2023 and 2024, respectively. That number has not been reached yet, so we should expect it fairly soon. Once unemployment does start to rise, the Fed should be able to pull back on its aggressive rate increases,” Gonzalez said.

A potential recession would have negative effects on unemployment, Gonzalez added.

“Losing a job is never good, but when you combine it with such high inflation it can really become disastrous. Even Americans with jobs right now are struggling to afford essentials like food and gas. If those numbers climb while more people become unemployed, we might see an economy in deep recession.”