UVA Baseball: ‘Hoos headed to Southern Miss; breakdown of field, projections

Virginia, despite a late-season swoon, still got a decent seed out of the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee, getting sent to Hattiesburg, Miss., for the four-team regional to be hosted by #9 national seed Southern Miss.

That translates to a #24 overall seed for UVA (36-21, RPI: 26).

Virginia opens the double-elimination Southern Miss Regional on Friday at 7 p.m. against the #3 seed, Jacksonville State (46-13, RPI: 25).

#1 seed Southern Miss

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Southern Miss (44-15, RPI: 12) is the champ from the Sun Belt.

The Eagles were 9-7 in Quad 1 and 17-4 in Quad 2.

Southern Miss against the 2026 tourney field:

• UC Santa Barbara (38-18, RPI: 38): 2-1 (5-1 L, 8-6 W, 6-5 W, Feb. 13-15)
• Oregon State (43-12, RPI: 8): 1-0 (9-4 W, Feb. 21)
• Alabama (37-19, RPI: 6): 1-0 (14-4 W, Feb. 24)
• Mississippi State (40-17, RPI: 13): 1-1 (7-6 W, March 3; 12-0 L, March 24)
• Ole Miss (36-21, RPI: 16): 1-1 (2-1 W, March 10; 10-3 L, April 14)
• Troy (32-29, RPI: 35): 4-2 (6-5 L, 11-5 W, 5-4 W, March 20-22; 7-6 W, 9-6 L, 6-2 W, May 23-24)
• Louisiana (39-23, RPI: 33): 2-2 (8-1 W, 8-4 L, 6-5 L, April 10-12; 11-7 W, May 24)
• Texas State (36-24, RPI: 43): 3-0 (8-2 W, 6-3 W, 5-4 W, April 17-19)

Overall record against the 2026 tourney field: 15-7

Pitching staff

The weekend guys are … good.

The #1 guy is lefty Grayden Harris (8-1, 3.20 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 100Ks/19BBs in 84.1 IP).

Right-hander Camden Clark is not a bad #2 (8-0, 2.88 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 77Ks/11BBs in 50.0 IP).

At #3 is another big arm, righty Camden Sunstrom (6-4, 2.79 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 79Ks/15BBs in 77.1 IP).

Sundstrom leads the team in saves (5), but he’s been in the rotation of late.

Lefthander Kros Sivley gets lots of usage (4-2, 4.04 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 51Ks/11BBs in 55.2 IP).

Righties Josh Och (6-2, 4.34 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 51Ks/17 BBs in 37.1 IP) and JW Armistead (1-0, 3.54 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 20Ks/13BBs in 20.1 IP) get lots of usage.

Lineup

• Kyle Morrison: .313 BA/1.031 OPS, 16 HRs, 47 RBIs
• Joey Urban: .314 BA/.979 OPS, 14 HRs, 53 RBIs
• Davis Gillespie: .316 BA/.973 OPS, 13 HRs, 48 RBIs
• Matthew Russo: .317 BA/.956 OPS, 11 HRs, 56 RBIs

#2 seed Virginia

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Virginia very much backdoored its way into the 2026 field – going 15-16 after a 21-5 start that included series wins over UNC, Wake Forest and Virginia Tech.

The ‘Hoos were 7-10 in Quad 1 and 9-7 in Quad 2.

UVA against the 2026 tourney field:

• VCU (37-23, RPI: 82): 3-1 (5-3 W, 7-6 W, 5-3 W, Feb. 27-March 1, 6-2 L, April 14)
• North Carolina (45-11, RPI: 4): 2-1 (13-3 W, 9-2 W, 8-7 W, March 6-7). The series win on the road over the #5 national seed is the big reason why the ‘Hoos got a decent #2 regional seed.
• Virginia Tech (30-24, RPI: 42): 2-1 (11-6 W, 10-5 W, 6-3 L, March 13-15)
• Liberty (41-19, RPI: 32): 2-0 (14-12 W, March 18, 5-4 W, April 22)
• Wake Forest (38-19, RPI: 20): 2-1 (10-6 W, 13-4 L, 14- 4 W, March 20-22)
• Boston College (36-21, RPI: 34): 1-2 (5-3 L, 17-0 L, 3-1 W, March 27-29)
• Florida State (38-17, RPI: 8): 1-2 (4-3 W, 5-2 L, 9-3 L, April 2-4). FSU is the #10 national seed.
• Georgia Tech (48-9, RPI: 2): 0-1 (16-10 L, May 21). Tech is the #2 national seed.

Overall record against the 2026 tourney field: 13-9

Pitching staff

Not much, beyond the #1 guy, Henry Zatkowski (8-1, 4.03 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 92Ks/23BBs in 80.1 IP).

You need to either win three or four games to get to the next round.

Not sure how this will be possible with this starting staff.

The bullpen is: running on fumes.

Lucas Hartman (10-2, 3.69 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 65Ks/23BBs in 61.0 IP) is second on the staff in innings.

And, he’s overused: 1.32 ERA/0.94 WHIP in his first 17 appearances; in his most recent 17 appearances: 6.67 ERA, 1.74 WHIP.

Lineup

• AJ Gracia: .338 BA/1.095 OPS, 14 HRs, 42 RBIs
• Eric Becker: .322 BA/.972 OPS, 7 HRs, 40 RBIs
• Joe Tiroly: .313 BA/.956 OPS, 14 HRs, 58 RBIs
• Sam Harris: .296 BA/.948 OPS, 14 HRs, 53 RBIs
• Harrison Didawick: .313 BA/.900 OPS, 9 HRs, 51 RBIs, 12 SBs

#3 seed Jacksonville State

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Jacksonville State (46-13, RPI: 25), the AQ from Conference USA, is Virginia’s first-round opponent (Friday, 7 p.m. ET).

JSU was 8-7 in Quad 1 and 8-3 in Quad 2 in 2026.

Jacksonville State against the 2026 tourney field:

• Cincinnati (37-20, RPI: 22): 1-2 (11-5 L, 6-5 L, 1-0 W, Feb. 13-15)
• Alabama (37-19, RPI: 15): 0-2 (6-5 L, March 3, 4-3 L, March 31)
• Auburn (38-19, RPI: 3): 2-0 (15-4 W, April 7, 4-1 W, May 12)
• Liberty (41-19, RPI: 32): 2-2 (8-4 W, 7-6 L, 4-2 L, April 10-12, 10-0 W, May 24)
• Troy (32-29, RPI: 35): 1-0 (5-4 W, April 21)
• Missouri State (34-19, RPI: 23): 2-1 (10-2 L, 10-2 W, 11-4 W, May 1-3)

Overall record against the 2026 tourney field: 8-7

Pitching staff

If third-year head coach Steve Bieser sticks with his regular rotation, the #1 starter that Virginia will see on Friday is Eli Pillsbury, a redshirt junior lefty.

Pillsbury (6-2, 4.07 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 85Ks/27BBs in 73.0 IP) was roughed up in his last two starts – eight runs on eight hits in two innings in a 13-3 loss to Dallas Baptist on May 14; three runs on two hits and three walks in 1.2 innings in a 12-11 win over Western Kentucky on May 22.

Bieser has two other options for a left-handed starter: one being senior Beau Brysons (7-1, 3.63 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 73Ks/40BBs in 62.0 IP).

Bryson has also struggled of late, though – Dallas Baptist got him for seven runs in 2.1 innings in a 10-6 loss on May 15, and three runs in three innings in a 6-5 win on May 23.

The other lefty starter is senior Steven Cash (8-2, 2.94 ERA, 1.05 WHIP), who pitched twice in the C-USA tourney last week – getting the win with five innings of work, three runs on three hits, eight Ks, two walks, in a 9-3 victory over Middle Tennessee, then giving the team 3.2 scoreless innings of relief in the C-USA title clincher over Liberty on Sunday.

The bullpen is really, really good.

• RHP Skyler Hutto: 6-3, 12 saves, 2.15 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 39Ks/15BBs in 37.2 IP
• RHP Jackson Sleeper: 4-2, four saves, 3.51 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 55Ks/20BBs in 41.0 IP
• LHP Chase Horst: 3-1, two saves, 0.73 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 22Ks/12BBs in 24.2 IP
• RHP Maddox McDougall: 4-0, two saves, 2.36 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 49Ks/14BBs in 45.2 IP

Lineup

• Brady Thomas: .314 BA/1.094 OPS, 10 HRs, 38 RBIs
• Caleb Johnson: .313 BA/.994 OPS, 9 HRs, 50 RBIs, 21 SBs
• Sam Richardson: .227 BA/.950 OPS, 8 HRs, 22 RBIs
• Grayson Ashe: .328 BA/.926 OPS, 8 HRs, 61 RBIs
• Jaxon Pate: .351 BA/.912 OPS, 2 HRs, 28 RBIs
• Trey King: .338 BA/.912 OPS, 4 HRs, 42 RBIs
• Cooper Blauser: .300 BA/.835 OPS, 4 HRs, 53 RBIs, 25 SBs

#4 seed Little Rock

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Little Rock (36-26, RPI: 89) is the AQ from the Ohio Valley.

The Trojans were 0-5 in Quad 1 and 6-7 in Quad 2.

Little Rock against the 2026 tourney field:

• Missouri State (34-19, RPI: 23): 0-3 (8-5 L, 7-5 L, 9-4 L, Feb. 27-28)
• Ole Miss (36-21, RPI: 16): 0-1 (7-4 L, March 31)
• Arkansas (39-20, RPI: 21): 0-1 (7-0 L, April 7)

Overall record against the 2026 tourney field: 0-5

Pitching staff

Righty Brannon Westmoreland (6-2, 3.00 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 76Ks/21BBS in 93.0 IP) and lefty Brigden Parker (3-3, 4.92 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 59Ks/33BBs in 70.1 IP) eat innings, which is good.

Gage Haley, a big (6’6”, 260) righthander, throws fire out of the pen (5-5, five saves, 4.47 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 48Ks/21BBs in 48.1 IP)

Lineup

• Nico Baumbach: .333 BA/.887 OPS, 4 HRs, 26 RBIs
• Kade Smith: .323 BA/.880 OPS, 5 HRs, 45 RBIs
• Angel Cano: .299 BA/.880 OPS, 12 HRs, 29 RBIs

Projection

Southern Miss has the quality and depth in starting pitching to be a sleeper College World Series team.

In their way is a good and battle-tested Jacksonville State team that has a deep lineup.

Virginia could sneak one against JSU in the opener because of Henry Zatkowski, but I wouldn’t see the ‘Hoos winning on a Saturday night against Southern Miss.

Jacksonville State would win an elimination-game rematch, and then need to survive another elimination game later in the day on Sunday to have a chance to pull the upset.

I like Southern Miss to advance here.