Forecast for mild dead zones in Chesapeake Bay resulting from drought

The ongoing drought has scientists forecasting a mild “dead zone” for the Chesapeake Bay for the summer of 2026, which is a mix of good and bad news.

The good news is, obviously, a mild dead zone – dead zones are areas of low-oxygen conditions where blue crabs, fish and other marine life struggle to survive.

This year’s dead zone, per a forecast from William & Mary’s Batten Schoo, FlowWest and the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, is expected to rank among the lowest 10 percent of years since extensive monitoring began in 1985, and will be about 31 percent below the long-term average.

“Lower nitrogen loads entering the Bay this spring are expected to translate into better oxygen conditions for fish, crabs, oysters and other Bay life this summer,” said Aaron Bever, senior managing scientist with FlowWest.

Now, the bad news: the mild outlook is largely due to low river flows and reduced nitrogen pollution entering the Bay from earlier in the year.

That is, it’s the result of the drought.

From January through April, the amount of water entering the Bay from rivers was 32 percent below the long-term average, while the amount of nitrogen was 39 percent lower than average, totaling about 59 million pounds of nitrogen, according to estimates from U.S. Geological Survey monitoring stations.

Droughts mean, less runoff from rainstorms that washes pollutants into the Bay.

“A smaller dead zone forecast this summer is welcome news, but dry weather won’t save the Chesapeake Bay. We’re currently in a drought that could have devastating consequences for farmers. But the long-term trend for our region is wetter weather and more intense storms, which equals more polluted runoff and dirtier water,” said Alison Hooper Prost, the senior vice president for programs at the Chesapeake Bay Foundation.

“Federal and state leaders from across the region just signed an updated Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement. Now it’s time to put the plan into action with policies and investments needed to restore the Bay for generations to come. That includes funding for USGS monitoring efforts that support the dead zone forecast and help more efficiently and effectively restore the Bay,” Prost said.