In 24 hours time, the City of Waynesboro went from expecting two to four inches of rain from Tropical Storm Debby to five to seven inches of rain (or more) over the next two or three days, but that is subject to change.
Waynesboro Department of Emergency Management and EMS Director Gary Critzer’s phone and email inbox have been blowing up today due to the changes in the forecast, and he’s been busy connecting with the National Weather Service and city staff to coordinate efforts in the River City.
Weather, he said, is unpredictable, but the city is doing its best to prepare for whatever the storm ushers in to the region.
Light rain is expected to start after midnight tonight, and then the rain should gradually start picking up.
“It gets more aggressive late tomorrow evening and overnight into Friday,” said Critzer. “So that’s our heaviest period, and then we’ll still have some light rain out here on Friday afternoon into Friday night.”
As a precaution, sand, sand bags and zip ties have been placed in the Arch Avenue parking lot in Constitution Park and in Club Court in the Brookside Cove cul-de-sac to help residents and businesses prepare for potential flooding.
Critzer said he has put emergency shelter staff on standby.
The storm trek shifted west causing the drastic change in expected rainfall, but it could go farther west or shift inland and change the trajectory again. However, right now, it looks like Waynesboro and the region surrounding it, will be in the direct path of the tropical storm.
“It’s weather. It’s subject to change. It’s all going to depend on the speed of the storm. It’s sped up and slowed down a couple of times already,” Critzer said.
Residents should monitor the situation, and be prepared for protective actions especially if they live or have a business in a flood-prone area in the city.
“Right now, I’m cautiously optimistic that I believe that we’ll deal with some flash flooding with small streams and such,” Critzer said. “The river is going to go up, but as long as it follows the current flood model from the weather service, it is below flood stage.
“We’re going to continue to monitor that [river flood stage], because it’s weather, so it’s unpredictable, and things could change.”
Critzer said he doesn’t anticipate Debby will cause the river to rise to a level of a 100-year level event, but it will produce a lot of rain.
“Hopefully it comes slowly enough that it gives us that much needed moisture that we really need in our watershed, and it doesn’t come quickly enough that it causes problems,” he said. “It’s still a little unpredictable, but that’s what it looks like right now.”
Waynesboro and surrounding areas are in emergency drought conditions, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, meaning the ground is dry and should be able to absorb water.
The current river forecast has the South River rising to about 7.9 feet Friday morning. That’s below flood stage on the South River. It usually has to rise to 11 to 12 feet before there is significant flooding from the river, Critzer said.
Adding to the unpredictability, however, is the mountains and sloping as well as what happens south of Waynesboro in the Sherando area.
“Anything that is more significant south of us impacts us just as much as what we have locally,” Critzer said. “In some cases, it impacts us more. If they were to get more rain south of us, over the watershed, that could certainly cause more issues for us in terms of river issues.”
Hopefully, Critzer said, the city won’t have to deal with river flooding.
“I think it’s going to get close, but I don’t think we’re going to have to deal with that [river flooding] unless something changes.”
Outside of river flooding, if the rain falls really fast, he said, there are concerns for other things like flash flooding of streams and creeks impacting the roads.
Improvements since floods of 1996, 2003
The last major flood occurred in Waynesboro in 2003, with Hurricane Isabel, and the downtown area saw significant flooding. Prior to that, in 1996, there were two significant flood events in the city.
Since then, flood mitigation efforts have taken place throughout the city hopefully improving the outcome of flood-prone areas in a major storm.
In Club Court and on Arch Avenue for example, properties were bought in flood-prone areas and taken out to give more area for water to spread out and limit repetitive property damage.
Extensive storm water work has also been done throughout the city. There have also been increases in capacity to the storm water system, Critzer said.
The dam at Rife Road was taken out which dramatically impacted water levels along the South River. Critzer believes the removal has actually help the city, and he’s hoping that holds true with this storm.
“While we’re not expecting a significant river flood at this point, there are a lot of factors with this storm that could cause it to change drastically,” Critzer said. “In a hurry, it could shift farther west, and we might not see as much rain. It could stall, and we could get even more. The effects south of us can certainly impact the river, so we’re going to have to monitor it really closely.”
Notice to readers
We attempted to reach out to Staunton (Josh Knight) and Augusta County (Mia Kivlighan) for more information on preparations but did not receive a response. When we hear back, we will update you on actions each is taking in preparation for Debby.
Related stories
Follow coverage of Tropical Storm Debby on Augusta Free Press.
Four to eight inches of rain possible for Shenandoah Valley as Debby’s track shifts west
Dominion Energy urges residents to prepare in advance of the storm
Heavy, soaking rain could create hazardous road conditions throughout Virginia
State of emergency declared for Virginia due to potential impact from Debby
2003 Hurricane Isabel coverage
Looking back at Hurricane Isabel
Ready to rumble: Residents prepare for Isabel
The perfect storm: Region braces for Hurricane Isabel
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Crystal Graham
