The 2024 UVA Football schedule breaks up nicely – four games, bye, four games, bye, finish with four games.
Going into the season, I’d written that Virginia needed to be at least 3-1 through its first four games – which included games with Richmond, Wake Forest, Maryland and Coastal Carolina.
We got there – with a blowout win over the FCS school, a rally from 13 down at Wake, a bad loss to Maryland due to a sleepwalk second half, then a surprising cakewalk down in Myrtle Beach.
Business picks up beginning this weekend, with Boston College (4-1, 1-0 ACC) coming to town.
The next four games have the ‘Hoos playing BC (ESPN FPI: 47), Louisville (ESPN FPI: 12), at Clemson (ESPN FPI: 13) and North Carolina (ESPN FPI: 61).
Three of those four are at home.
Virginia, going into its second bye week, needs to be 5-3, given that the schedule finishes with three road games in the final four – at Pitt (ESPN FPI: 39), at Notre Dame (ESPN FPI: 7), at home against SMU (ESPN FPI: 19) and at Virginia Tech (ESPN FPI: 42).
The modest goal for the 2024 Virginia team going in was six wins and a cold-weather bowl.
It can still be done.
Inside the Numbers: Skill guys
The offense has made the greatest strides, improving from 368.8 yards per game in 2023 to 455.5 yards per game in 2024.
The rushing offense, on the heels of the 384-yard day in the win at Coastal Carolina, is third in the ACC, at 195.0 yards per game, up from the puny 117.9 yards per game from 2023.
QB1 Anthony Colandrea, who won the battle with incumbent starter Tony Muskett in training camp, is sixth in the ACC in passing yards per game (258.0), completing 68.3 percent of his passes (third in the ACC) with seven TDs, four INTs and a 98.6 NFL passer rating.
Wideout Malachi Fields is second in the ACC in receptions per game (6.0) and receiving yards per game (87.3).
On the season, Fields has 24 catches on 35 targets, 349 yards and two TDs, and Colandrea has a 107.9 NFL passer rating on throws in his direction.
Kent State transfer wideout Trell Harris has 13 catches on 18 targets, 201 yards and two TDs, and Colandrea has a 122.7 NFL passer rating on throws to Harris.
Harvard transfer tight end Tyler Neville has been a pleasant surprise – 10 catches on 16 targets, 161 yards and two TDs, and a 109.6 NFL passer rating on his targets.
The disappointment among the skill guys is Notre Dame transfer slot receiver Chris Tyree, who has 12 catches on 16 targets, all short stuff – 10 passes behind the line of scrimmage, six 0-9 yards downfield – for just 48 yards, and a 77.1 NFL passer rating on his targets.
Inside the Numbers: O line
Jack Witmer, technically a converted tight end, though Witmer barely got on the field in his three years as a tight end, has been a savior on the offensive line, filling in ably for McKale Boley, the starter last year at left tackle.
Witmer may have the job going forward with his play through four games – a Pro Football Focus grade at 75.3, with five QB pressures (one sack) on 138 pass dropbacks, and a 72.0 run-blocking grade.
In the 43-24 win at Coastal Carolina in Week 4, Witmer, left guard Noah Josey (PFF grade: 71.0) and center Brian Stevens (PFF grade: 76.7) cleared the way for the ground game, which gained 169 yards on 17 attempts on middle left and middle right runs, and around the left end, with 84 yards on 13 attempts there.
Right tackle Blake Steen has the line’s best PFF grade, 80.1 (three QB pressures, no sacks, on 137 pass dropbacks).
Inside the Numbers: Defense
The Virginia D is doing a much better job of keeping opponents from scoring. Last year’s D allowed an ACC-worst 33.5 points per game; the unit this season is surrendering 23.5.
The two guys on the back end, safeties Jonas Sanker and Antonio Clary, have been the stalwarts.
Clary (PFF grade: 74.9) leads the unit with 41 tackles, and he has 1.5 tackles for loss, a QB hurry, an INT and three pass breakups.
Sanker (PFF grade: 68.7), a preseason All-ACC pick, has 32 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, a sack, a QB hurry and three pass breakups.
The top-graded guy on the defense is seventh-year D end Kam Butler (PFF grade: 80.1), who has 15 tackles, a sack and 12 QB hurries.
The pass-coverage group could use some help. Virginia ranks 66th among the 134 teams in FBS in coverage in the PFF system, with five of the six guys getting snaps at cornerback with NFL passer ratings against over 100.0.
The guy under that mark: Jam Jackson (17 receptions on 30 targets, 239 yards, one TD, two pass breakups, three defensive penalties).
Inside the Numbers: Special teams
Placekicker Will Bettridge is 8-of-9 on field-goal tries (2-of-2 from 40+), and 13-of-13 on extra points.
Daniel Sparks is averaging 47.4 yards per punt, with one punt blocked – fortunately, it didn’t lead to points for the bad guys.
Sparks is also the kickoff guy, and he’s averaging 67.0 yards on his kickoffs, with 15 touchbacks, eight returns (for a 14.3-yard average), and an average opponent starting field position at the 22.6 yard line.
The kick-coverage unit did force one turnover, on the opening kickoff in the Coastal game, which set up the offense in the red zone, and led to an opening-drive TD.
The return game is almost nonexistent – seven kickoff returns total in four games, for a 24.6-yard average, and three punt returns for a total of 23 yards.
The path to six
Boston College limped to a 21-20 win over Western Kentucky this past weekend with dynamic QB Thomas Castellanos out of the lineup.
With Castellanos’s status going into this weekend not known, Virginia opened as a 2.5-point home favorite.
Louisville, coming off a 31-24 loss to Notre Dame, has SMU at home this weekend.
Virginia, remember, took a seven-point lead into the fourth quarter at Louisville last season before falling, 31-24.
Clemson, at Clemson, is tough, with the Tigers looking good since the 34-3 loss to Georgia in the season opener back on Aug. 31.
North Carolina, which UVA upset on the road last fall, looks eminently beatable, after giving up 70 to JMU two weeks ago, and blowing a 20-point lead in a 21-20 loss to Duke this past weekend.
Win two of those four, then get one from among Pitt, Notre Dame, SMU and Virginia Tech, and you get to six.
Pitt and SMU, in that last stretch, are winnable, and on paper, the Tech game should be competitive, if it wasn’t Tech.
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Chris Graham
